Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
Compares Bitcoin's market cap with its realized cap (what today's holders paid for their coins on average), measured in standard deviations. Very high: the market is worth far more than it cost; below 0: it is worth less.
Market cycle readingclose of
At the November 12, 2026 close, Bitcoin ($71,460) sits in band 3 of 9 on the rainbow chart ("low"), 5.5% above its 200-week average ($67,760), with a Mayer Multiple of 0.98, below its 200-day average. Below the 200-day average but above the 200-week one: a correction within the long-term uptrend, not a cycle-low reading. Altcoins: the Altcoin Season Index reads 44/100 (neutral). The last altcoin season in our records ran from Sep 12, 2025 to Sep 25, 2025 (peak 85).
Precedent. The last time Bitcoin was in this position (in rainbow band 3, above its 200-week average and below its 200-day average) was between Jan 25, 2026 and Aug 9, 2026, starting at $86,670. Six months later it was 24.5% lower. We were publishing: Fidelity Flags Bitcoin ‘Rebalancing’ Risk as Gold Rally Accelerates
Before that, at least a year earlier: the week of Sep 8, 2024, starting at $54,870. Six months later it was 47.1% higher; a year later, 102.5% higher. We were publishing: Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin’s Drop Below $50K as Market Fear Reaches Critical Levels
Our own calculation from Bitcoin daily and weekly closes since 2010, updated once a day. The precedent compares positions; it does not predict the price.
Today's readingclose of Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: history
Weekly points (Sunday close, UTC); hover for the value and the BTC price. Source: Coin Metrics (MVRV) and blockchain.com (supply).
What happened the other times
| Date | Event | BTC price | +6 m | +12 m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2022 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $22,487 | −23% | +15% |
| Feb 19, 2021 | rose above 7 (top zone) | $55,906 | −12% | −28% |
| Mar 12, 2020 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $4,800 | +115% | +1,092% |
| Nov 19, 2018 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $4,910 | +62% | +66% |
| Dec 6, 2017 | rose above 7 (top zone) | $13,550 | −43% | −74% |
| Jul 15, 2015 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $287.92 | +52% | +127% |
| Oct 4, 2014 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $358.90 | −29% | −33% |
| Nov 19, 2013 | rose above 7 (top zone) | $660.20 | −32% | −43% |
| Apr 2, 2013 | rose above 7 (top zone) | $104.00 | +21% | +361% |
| Mar 7, 2012 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $5.05 | +110% | +732% |
| Sep 9, 2011 | fell below 0 (below the cost basis) | $7.23 | −31% | +56% |
Few cases and a single asset: precedents describe the past and guarantee nothing.
How it is calculated
Z = (market cap − realized cap) / standard deviation of the market cap since 2010. Market cap = our daily close × circulating supply (blockchain.com). Realized cap = market cap / MVRV, using Coin Metrics' daily MVRV (community API). Recalculated once a day.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score today?
At the last daily close it reads 0.57: normal.
How is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score calculated?
Z = (market cap − realized cap) / standard deviation of the market cap since 2010. Market cap = our daily close × circulating supply (blockchain.com). Realized cap = market cap / MVRV, using Coin Metrics' daily MVRV (community API). Recalculated once a day.
When was the last signal?
On June 13, 2022 the indicator fell below 0 (below the cost basis), with Bitcoin at $22,487. A year later the price had moved +15%.
Does it predict the price?
No. It sums up in one number where the price stands against its own history, and it has marked top and bottom zones in the past, but with few cycles as a sample. Use it with the other cycle indicators.