Crypto prediction markets
Probabilities that prediction markets assign to Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto price targets, and to laws, IPOs and other industry events. Each figure comes from the price of a contract that pays $1 if the event happens: a price of $0.27 means 27%.
Key odds at a glance
| Coin | Price | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $68,712 | $90,000 7.5% | $65,000 68% |
| ETH | $1,932 | $3,000 5% | $1,750 49% |
| BNB | $632.09 | $1,000 4.8% | $600 51% |
| XRP | $1.03 | $2.60 2% | $0.80 32% |
| SOL | $79.79 | $140 4.6% | $70 55% |
| HYPE | $71.95 | $100 17% | $65 71% |
Price targets for 2026
Probability that each coin touches each price at least once before the end of the year, as priced by each contract.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $110,000 | 1.3% | −2.6 pts |
| Reach $100,000 | 2.9% | −4.6 pts |
| Reach $95,000 | 5.5% | −6 pts |
| Reach $90,000 | 7.5% | −16 pts |
| Current BTC price | $68,712 | |
| Dip to $65,000 | 68% | +35 pts |
| Dip to $60,000 | 38% | +20.5 pts |
| Dip to $55,000 | 17% | +5 pts |
Reach $90,000, last 30 days
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $4,500 | 1.5% | −0.9 pts |
| Reach $4,000 | 1.6% | −1.5 pts |
| Reach $3,500 | 2.6% | −4 pts |
| Reach $3,000 | 5% | −11.5 pts |
| Current ETH price | $1,932 | |
| Dip to $1,750 | 49% | +26.5 pts |
| Dip to $1,500 | 22% | +11.6 pts |
| Dip to $1,250 | 11% | +4 pts |
Reach $3,000, last 30 days
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $130 | 2.7% | −1.8 pts |
| Reach $120 | 6.5% | −1.5 pts |
| Reach $110 | 5.5% | −10.5 pts |
| Reach $100 | 17% | −15 pts |
| Current HYPE price | $71.95 | |
| Dip to $65 | 71% | +14 pts |
| Dip to $60 | 43% | +28 pts |
| Dip to $50 | 15% | +6.5 pts |
Reach $100, last 30 days
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $200 | 1.6% | −1.6 pts |
| Reach $180 | 1.5% | −2.1 pts |
| Reach $160 | 2.7% | −2.9 pts |
| Reach $140 | 4.6% | −5 pts |
| Current SOL price | $79.79 | |
| Dip to $70 | 55% | +24 pts |
| Dip to $60 | 25% | +12.6 pts |
| Dip to $50 | 9.4% | +1.7 pts |
Reach $140, last 30 days
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $12 | 2.4% | −1.3 pts |
| Reach $10 | 6% | −1 pts |
| Reach $8 | 7% | −3.9 pts |
| Reach $6 | 13% | −4 pts |
| Current LIT price | $3.19 | |
| Dip to $2.50 | 62% | +22.5 pts |
| Dip to $2 | 12% | −2.5 pts |
Reach $6, last 30 days
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $2,000 | 8.3% | −15.1 pts |
| Current ZEC price | $940.63 | |
| Dip to $700 | 39% | +21.5 pts |
| Dip to $600 | 19% | +7 pts |
| Dip to $500 | 8.5% | +1 pts |
Reach $2,000, last 30 days
What price will XRP hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $3.20 | 2.7% | −0.6 pts |
| Reach $3 | 2.9% | +1.1 pts |
| Reach $2.80 | 2% | −0.7 pts |
| Reach $2.60 | 2% | −2 pts |
| Current XRP price | $1.03 | |
| Dip to $0.80 | 32% | +18.5 pts |
| Dip to $0.60 | 6% | +1.5 pts |
| Dip to $0.40 | 2.1% | +0.2 pts |
Reach $2.60, last 30 days
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $0.50 | 5% | −5 pts |
| Reach $0.40 | 5% | −16 pts |
| Reach $0.30 | 5% | −15 pts |
| Reach $0.24 | 4.5% | −7.5 pts |
| Current XPL price | $0.049885 | |
Reach $0.24, last 30 days
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $0.44 | 2.5% | −0.4 pts |
| Reach $0.40 | 3.3% | −2.4 pts |
| Reach $0.36 | 3.5% | −2 pts |
| Reach $0.32 | 3.5% | −9 pts |
| Current ENA price | $0.137183 | |
| Dip to $0.12 | 62% | +12 pts |
| Dip to $0.08 | 43% | −4.5 pts |
| Dip to $0.04 | 3% | −1 pts |
Reach $0.32, last 30 days
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $0.01 | 3.2% | −6.4 pts |
| Reach $0.009 | 4.7% | −2.8 pts |
| Reach $0.008 | 6% | −8.5 pts |
| Reach $0.007 | 9% | −27.5 pts |
| Current PUMP price | $0.00339 | |
| Dip to $0.003 | 58% | +34 pts |
| Dip to $0.0026 | 31% | +15 pts |
| Dip to $0.001 | 7% | −3 pts |
Reach $0.007, last 30 days
What price will BNB hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $1,300 | 2.6% | −1 pts |
| Reach $1,200 | 2% | −3.5 pts |
| Reach $1,100 | 2% | −3 pts |
| Reach $1,000 | 4.8% | −3.3 pts |
| Current BNB price | $632.09 | |
| Dip to $600 | 51% | +28 pts |
| Dip to $500 | 17% | +3.1 pts |
| Dip to $400 | 7% | −1.5 pts |
Reach $1,000, last 30 days
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $0.28 | 2.9% | −0.8 pts |
| Reach $0.24 | 2% | −0.7 pts |
| Reach $0.20 | 4.5% | — |
| Reach $0.16 | 4.3% | −3.2 pts |
| Current DOGE price | $0.06453 | |
| Dip to $0.06 | 69% | +26.5 pts |
| Dip to $0.02 | 5.1% | +2 pts |
Reach $0.16, last 30 days
Price targets for November
Same idea, with a deadline on the last day of that month.
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $77,500 | 14% | −71 pts |
| Reach $75,000 | 30% | — |
| Reach $72,500 | 55% | — |
| Current BTC price | $68,712 | |
| Dip to $67,500 | 76% | +48 pts |
| Dip to $65,000 | 51% | +30 pts |
| Dip to $62,500 | 30% | +18 pts |
What price will Ethereum hit in November?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $2,300 | 13% | −70.5 pts |
| Reach $2,200 | 24% | — |
| Reach $2,100 | 46% | — |
| Current ETH price | $1,932 | |
| Dip to $1,800 | 51% | +34.5 pts |
| Dip to $1,700 | 28% | +17 pts |
| Dip to $1,600 | 15% | +7.4 pts |
What price will XRP hit in November?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $1.60 | 3.4% | −5.6 pts |
| Reach $1.40 | 5% | −24 pts |
| Reach $1.20 | 23% | — |
| Current XRP price | $1.03 | |
| Dip to $0.80 | 14% | +7.6 pts |
| Dip to $0.60 | 1.4% | — |
| Dip to $0.40 | <1% | — |
Reach $1.20, last 30 days
What price will Solana hit in November?
| Price | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Reach $110 | 3.8% | −17.8 pts |
| Reach $100 | 8.5% | −40.5 pts |
| Reach $90 | 33% | — |
| Current SOL price | $79.79 | |
| Dip to $70 | 37% | +19 pts |
| Dip to $60 | 6.9% | +2.3 pts |
| Dip to $50 | 2.8% | −0.8 pts |
Milestones and all-time highs
When a coin will reach a round number, whether it will set a new all-time high and which price it will touch first.
When will Bitcoin hit $150,000?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 1% | −0.2 pts |
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 4.2% | +1.6 pts |
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 8.5% | −2 pts |
| By Sep 30, 2027 | 15% | — |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 22% | −3.5 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
New Bitcoin all-time high by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 1.8% | −1.3 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
New Ethereum all-time high by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 1.8% | +0.2 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
New Solana all-time high by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 1.6% | −1.2 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
New XRP all-time high by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 0.7% | −2.4 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
When will Bitcoin hit $100,000?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 4.1% | −4 pts |
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 14% | −17.5 pts |
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 27% | −19 pts |
| By Sep 30, 2027 | 35% | −21 pts |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 59% | −12 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
Regulation, companies and adoption
Laws, IPOs, government reserves, stablecoins and other industry events.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.2% | −0.7 pts |
Last 30 days
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.4 pts |
Last 30 days
Satoshi's identity be proven by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 1.8% | +0.1 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
Kraken IPO by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 3.6% | −1.8 pts |
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 7% | −7.5 pts |
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 28% | −2.5 pts |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 63% | −1 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | −0.3 pts |
Last 30 days
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 91% | +3.5 pts |
| Gold | 6.1% | −3.4 pts |
| Bitcoin | 3.2% | −2.4 pts |
Bitcoin, last 30 days
Bitcoin best month in 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| August | 92% | +0.1 pts |
| December | 7% | +2.5 pts |
| November | 2.1% | −1.5 pts |
November, last 30 days
OKX IPO in 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.7% | +0.2 pts |
Last 30 days
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.7% | +0.7 pts |
Last 30 days
Will MicroStrategy announce holding … BTC by December 31, 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| 1M+ | 0.7% | −0.8 pts |
1M+, last 30 days
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | −7 pts |
Last 30 days
Consensys IPO by…?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 2.6% | −0.8 pts |
By Dec 31, 2026, last 30 days
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| USDS | 6.3% | +0.4 pts |
| PYUSD | 8.8% | +2.8 pts |
| USDTb | 6.4% | +0.5 pts |
| GHO | 8% | −1.2 pts |
| USD0 | 5.5% | −0.5 pts |
USDC, last 30 days
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
| Outcome | Probability | 7 days (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | +0.5 pts |
Last 30 days
How to read the data
What is a prediction market?
A market where people buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it does not. The price of each contract, between $0 and $1, is read as the probability the participants as a whole assign to that event: a contract at $0.27 means 27%.
How should I read these probabilities?
They are implied probabilities: a summary of what participants are willing to pay at that moment, not a forecast by Crypto Economy or any analyst. In price targets, "reach" or "dip to" means touching that price at least once before the deadline, not closing the year there. In markets with little volume a few trades can move the price a lot.
Where does the data come from and how often is it updated?
From Polymarket's public APIs (prices, volume, closing date and daily history). We query them once an hour from our server and the page shows the time of the last update. Only open markets are listed; markets that settle within a day or a week are left out.
Is Polymarket available in my country?
Polymarket restricts or blocks access from several countries, and some regulators have ordered it blocked. This page only shows public data for information; it is not an invitation to trade and contains no affiliate links. Check the rules in your country.
Source: Polymarket public APIs (Gamma and CLOB), queried every hour from our server. Current coin prices: CoinGecko. Information only: not a forecast by Crypto Economy, investment advice or an invitation to trade. Polymarket is not available in some countries. Crypto Economy is not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by Polymarket; the name is used only to identify the source of the data.