Mayer Multiple
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day average. Devised by investor Trace Mayer: above 2.4 the market has historically been overheated; below 1, the price is under its medium-term trend.
Market cycle readingclose of
At the November 12, 2026 close, Bitcoin ($71,460) sits in band 3 of 9 on the rainbow chart ("low"), 5.5% above its 200-week average ($67,760), with a Mayer Multiple of 0.98, below its 200-day average. Below the 200-day average but above the 200-week one: a correction within the long-term uptrend, not a cycle-low reading. Altcoins: the Altcoin Season Index reads 44/100 (neutral). The last altcoin season in our records ran from Sep 12, 2025 to Sep 25, 2025 (peak 85).
Precedent. The last time Bitcoin was in this position (in rainbow band 3, above its 200-week average and below its 200-day average) was between Jan 25, 2026 and Aug 9, 2026, starting at $86,670. Six months later it was 24.5% lower. We were publishing: Fidelity Flags Bitcoin ‘Rebalancing’ Risk as Gold Rally Accelerates
Before that, at least a year earlier: the week of Sep 8, 2024, starting at $54,870. Six months later it was 47.1% higher; a year later, 102.5% higher. We were publishing: Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin’s Drop Below $50K as Market Fear Reaches Critical Levels
Our own calculation from Bitcoin daily and weekly closes since 2010, updated once a day. The precedent compares positions; it does not predict the price.
Today's readingclose of Nov 12, 2026
Mayer Multiple: history
Weekly points (Sunday close, UTC); hover for the value and the BTC price. Source: our own daily closes.
What happened the other times
| Date | Event | BTC price | +6 m | +12 m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | fell below 0.8 | $61,056 | — | — |
| Nov 20, 2025 | fell below 0.8 | $86,637 | −10% | — |
| Nov 8, 2022 | fell below 0.8 | $18,547 | +49% | +92% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | fell below 0.8 | $36,445 | −38% | −37% |
| Jun 8, 2021 | fell below 0.8 | $33,381 | +52% | −10% |
| Jan 3, 2021 | rose above 2.4 (overheating) | $33,000 | +7% | +41% |
| Nov 22, 2019 | fell below 0.8 | $7,268 | +26% | +157% |
| Jun 26, 2019 | rose above 2.4 (overheating) | $13,094 | −45% | −29% |
| Nov 19, 2018 | fell below 0.8 | $4,910 | +62% | +66% |
| Mar 29, 2018 | fell below 0.8 | $7,090 | −6% | −42% |
| Dec 26, 2017 | rose above 2.4 (overheating) | $15,689 | −61% | −76% |
| Jun 7, 2017 | rose above 2.4 (overheating) | $2,872 | +372% | +168% |
Few cases and a single asset: precedents describe the past and guarantee nothing.
How it is calculated
Multiple = daily close / average of the last 200 daily closes. Our own closes since 2010. The 2.4 threshold is Trace Mayer's (2017).
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mayer Multiple today?
At the last daily close it reads 0.98: below the 200-day average.
How is the Mayer Multiple calculated?
Multiple = daily close / average of the last 200 daily closes. Our own closes since 2010. The 2.4 threshold is Trace Mayer's (2017).
When was the last signal?
On June 5, 2026 the indicator fell below 0.8, with Bitcoin at $61,056.
Does it predict the price?
No. It sums up in one number where the price stands against its own history, and it has marked top and bottom zones in the past, but with few cycles as a sample. Use it with the other cycle indicators.