Bitcoin Hash Ribbons
Compares the 30-day average of Bitcoin's hash rate with the 60-day average. When the short one drops below, miners are switching machines off (capitulation); the end of a capitulation has often been followed by rallies.
Market cycle readingclose of
At the November 12, 2026 close, Bitcoin ($71,460) sits in band 3 of 9 on the rainbow chart ("low"), 5.5% above its 200-week average ($67,760), with a Mayer Multiple of 0.98, below its 200-day average. Below the 200-day average but above the 200-week one: a correction within the long-term uptrend, not a cycle-low reading. Altcoins: the Altcoin Season Index reads 44/100 (neutral). The last altcoin season in our records ran from Sep 12, 2025 to Sep 25, 2025 (peak 85).
Precedent. The last time Bitcoin was in this position (in rainbow band 3, above its 200-week average and below its 200-day average) was between Jan 25, 2026 and Aug 9, 2026, starting at $86,670. Six months later it was 24.5% lower. We were publishing: Fidelity Flags Bitcoin ‘Rebalancing’ Risk as Gold Rally Accelerates
Before that, at least a year earlier: the week of Sep 8, 2024, starting at $54,870. Six months later it was 47.1% higher; a year later, 102.5% higher. We were publishing: Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin’s Drop Below $50K as Market Fear Reaches Critical Levels
Our own calculation from Bitcoin daily and weekly closes since 2010, updated once a day. The precedent compares positions; it does not predict the price.
Today's readingclose of Nov 12, 2026
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons: history
Weekly points (Sunday close, UTC); hover for the value and the BTC price. Source: blockchain.com.
What happened the other times
| Date | Event | BTC price | +6 m | +12 m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $79,024 | — | — |
| Dec 1, 2025 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $86,286 | −17% | — |
| Feb 2, 2025 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $97,701 | +17% | −19% |
| Jun 17, 2024 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $66,504 | +59% | +57% |
| Jul 14, 2023 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $30,312 | +41% | +95% |
| Jan 14, 2023 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $20,955 | +45% | +99% |
| Jul 4, 2022 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $20,237 | −18% | +52% |
| Apr 25, 2021 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $49,067 | +24% | −18% |
| Jun 23, 2020 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $9,625 | +147% | +250% |
| Dec 21, 2019 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $7,133 | +31% | +229% |
| Jan 10, 2019 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $3,586 | +216% | +129% |
| Aug 22, 2016 | crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation) | $577.24 | +82% | +600% |
Few cases and a single asset: precedents describe the past and guarantee nothing.
How it is calculated
Value = (30-day / 60-day average of the hash rate − 1) × 100, with blockchain.com's daily hash rate. Below 0 there is capitulation; the cross back above 0 is Charles Edwards' signal (2019). The original also requires price momentum; here we show the cross and the price that day.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons today?
At the last daily close it reads 2.6%: recovery (no capitulation).
How is the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons calculated?
Value = (30-day / 60-day average of the hash rate − 1) × 100, with blockchain.com's daily hash rate. Below 0 there is capitulation; the cross back above 0 is Charles Edwards' signal (2019). The original also requires price momentum; here we show the cross and the price that day.
When was the last signal?
On August 26, 2026 the indicator crossed back above 0 (end of capitulation), with Bitcoin at $79,024.
Does it predict the price?
No. It sums up in one number where the price stands against its own history, and it has marked top and bottom zones in the past, but with few cycles as a sample. Use it with the other cycle indicators.