Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Divides Bitcoin's 111-day price average by twice its 350-day average. When the short average catches the long one (ratio 1), the signal fires: it has coincided with the major cycle tops.
Market cycle readingclose of
At the November 12, 2026 close, Bitcoin ($71,460) sits in band 3 of 9 on the rainbow chart ("low"), 5.5% above its 200-week average ($67,760), with a Mayer Multiple of 0.98, below its 200-day average. Below the 200-day average but above the 200-week one: a correction within the long-term uptrend, not a cycle-low reading. Altcoins: the Altcoin Season Index reads 44/100 (neutral). The last altcoin season in our records ran from Sep 12, 2025 to Sep 25, 2025 (peak 85).
Precedent. The last time Bitcoin was in this position (in rainbow band 3, above its 200-week average and below its 200-day average) was between Jan 25, 2026 and Aug 9, 2026, starting at $86,670. Six months later it was 24.5% lower. We were publishing: Fidelity Flags Bitcoin ‘Rebalancing’ Risk as Gold Rally Accelerates
Before that, at least a year earlier: the week of Sep 8, 2024, starting at $54,870. Six months later it was 47.1% higher; a year later, 102.5% higher. We were publishing: Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin’s Drop Below $50K as Market Fear Reaches Critical Levels
Our own calculation from Bitcoin daily and weekly closes since 2010, updated once a day. The precedent compares positions; it does not predict the price.
Today's readingclose of Nov 12, 2026
Pi Cycle Top Indicator: history
Weekly points (Sunday close, UTC); hover for the value and the BTC price. Source: our own daily closes.
What happened the other times
| Date | Event | BTC price | +6 m | +12 m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2021 | crossed 1 (top signal) | $59,860 | −4% | −33% |
| Dec 16, 2017 | crossed 1 (top signal) | $19,103 | −66% | −83% |
| Dec 7, 2013 | crossed 1 (top signal) | $800.00 | −19% | −53% |
| Apr 7, 2013 | crossed 1 (top signal) | $143.61 | −16% | +219% |
Few cases and a single asset: precedents describe the past and guarantee nothing.
How it is calculated
Ratio = 111-day average / (2 × 350-day average), on our daily closes since 2010 (blockchain.com until August 2017, Binance since). 111 and 350 are Philip Swift's parameters (2019); 350/111 ≈ 3.15, hence the name.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator today?
At the last daily close it reads 0.51: far from the signal.
How is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator calculated?
Ratio = 111-day average / (2 × 350-day average), on our daily closes since 2010 (blockchain.com until August 2017, Binance since). 111 and 350 are Philip Swift's parameters (2019); 350/111 ≈ 3.15, hence the name.
When was the last signal?
On April 12, 2021 the indicator crossed 1 (top signal), with Bitcoin at $59,860. A year later the price had moved −33%.
Does it predict the price?
No. It sums up in one number where the price stands against its own history, and it has marked top and bottom zones in the past, but with few cycles as a sample. Use it with the other cycle indicators.