TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes sees Ethereum reaching $10,000 by the end of 2026 as dollar liquidity expands.
- He also expects Bitcoin’s next major move to be signaled by EUR/JPY, which he forecasts falling toward 140 or below.
- His thesis focuses on banking stress, Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury funding, while ENA and ETHFI remain higher-risk bets with similarly aggressive upside targets.
Hayes is shifting attention away from short-term Federal Reserve rhetoric and toward currency markets as a potential indicator of Bitcoin’s next major move. In his latest analysis, the Maelstrom CIO argues that EUR/JPY could provide an earlier signal of changing dollar liquidity conditions.
Hayes expects EUR/JPY, which recently traded near 185, to fall toward 140 or below by June 2027. He links that move to changing capital flows involving Japan and other major US allies in Asia, alongside Treasury policy aimed at supporting American competitiveness.
The bigger part of his thesis involves European banking. Hayes points to BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale as important participants in US repo markets. He argues that renewed funding pressure at French banks could eventually increase the need for Federal Reserve support, potentially creating conditions that are favorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
That view depends heavily on liquidity. Hayes estimates that Federal Reserve operations supporting Treasury markets could expand substantially if funding stress intensifies. From his perspective, additional dollar liquidity would provide a stronger foundation for another crypto expansion than changes in short-term Fed rhetoric alone.
Hayes Sees Ethereum Leading A Broader Crypto Upside
Ethereum is central to Hayes’ bullish positioning. He has placed a $10,000 year-end 2026 target on ETH, compared with levels around $2,400 cited in his latest analysis. Reaching that target would require ETH to more than quadruple, making it an aggressive projection rather than a near-term price expectation.
Hayes has also identified Ethena’s ENA at $0.50 and Ether.fi’s ETHFI at $2 as speculative targets. Both forecasts imply gains of more than 200% from the levels referenced in his analysis, reflecting his preference for assets that could benefit disproportionately from renewed liquidity.
Bitcoin remains his core long-term crypto position, but his latest argument places greater emphasis on macro signals. Recent volatility has shown how quickly BTC can react to Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical developments and changes in global liquidity.
The broader crypto market could therefore face an important test if Hayes’ thesis plays out. Stronger dollar liquidity would potentially support Bitcoin first and then higher-beta assets across Ethereum and decentralized finance.
