TL;DR:
- Bitcoin rose to $76,621 after the Fed raised rates 25 basis points, as traders focused on projections showing only one additional hike ahead.
- Crypto futures open interest climbed to $64.4 billion, suggesting traders added exposure rather than simply covering short positions during the broad market rebound.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted heavy outflows, with more than $1 billion leaving across seven sessions since September 8, keeping institutional demand a key question.
Bitcoin extended its rebound on Thursday, climbing to about $76,621 after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in its first increase since July 2023. The move lifted the target range to 3.75%-4%, but markets focused less on the hike itself than on what officials signaled next. The rally was driven by relief that the Fed’s projections implied only one additional increase instead of a prolonged tightening cycle. Ether gained 1.1% to $2,444, while Solana rose 2% to $100.57, showing the response spread beyond Bitcoin as traders recalibrated expectations for the months ahead.
The Fed’s median projection placed the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, suggesting limited additional tightening. That outlook helped lift broader risk assets, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.04%, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.81%, gold rising 1.02% and silver advancing 1.52%. Crypto joined a wider relief move rather than leading it, a reversal from earlier in the week when digital assets traded more independently from equities. Ninety-four of 100 tracked crypto assets rose over 24 hours, while small caps outperformed larger tokens. Small caps showed the strongest response overall.
Leverage Returns as Traders Add Exposure
The rally also came with renewed leverage. Aggregate crypto futures open interest climbed to $64.4 billion from $59.7 billion on Monday, while 24-hour volume reached $112.6 billion and liquidations totaled $214.3 million. The rise in open interest suggests traders were adding fresh exposure into the rebound rather than merely closing short positions. Bitcoin open interest increased 1.41% to $26.6 billion and Ether open interest rose 1.39% to $16.7 billion, while the long-short ratio remained tilted toward bullish positioning for an eighth consecutive day. The increase points to risk appetite after earlier deleveraging across the market.
Fund flows, however, remain a weak point. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $295.98 million in net outflows on Wednesday after losing $450.33 million the previous day, taking withdrawals since September 8 above $1 billion across seven sessions. Bitcoin is recovering despite persistent ETF selling, making the durability of the rally dependent on whether broader demand can offset institutional outflows. BTC still trades 6.9% below its September 4 high of $82,284, leaving the rebound constructive but incomplete as markets digest a Fed decision that proved less restrictive than feared, even as the rebound gathers momentum today.
