TL;DR
- Grayscale Research argues that the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike will not generate significant changes in Bitcoin or the broader market.
- The firm distinguishes between a mid-cycle adjustment and a sustained tightening campaign, such as the 2022–2023 cycle, when the Fed raised rates by 550 basis points.
- Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, draws a parallel with March 1997, when a one-off Greenspan hike did not halt the Nasdaq bull market.
Grayscale Research published an analysis arguing that the recent 25-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve, which brought the benchmark rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range, should not generate significant moves in the price of Bitcoin or in the crypto asset market broadly. The central question the firm raises is not whether rates are rising, but how far and for how long that path can extend.
Grayscale’s argument rests on a monetary policy distinction. The firm characterizes the move as a mid-cycle adjustment, not as a structural shift in the direction of official policy. In its view, what matters is not the size of an isolated move, but the scale and duration of the path that follows it. On that basis, the firm expects one or two additional hikes in 2026, a sequence it considers limited and therefore carrying different implications for capital allocation.
25 basis points hike and Crypto is still green.
Grayscale Research views this as a mid-cycle adjustment, not a cyclical shift, and expects little impact on crypto markets. A comparable hike in 1997 had the same result. Worth noting: stablecoin issuers like @circle and @tether,… pic.twitter.com/kTNHhpB0yn
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) September 17, 2026
The Greenspan Precedent
To support this analysis, Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, draws on a historical precedent: March 1997, when the Fed under Alan Greenspan executed what the firm describes as an equivalent one-off hike, and the Nasdaq bull market continued without major interruption.
This comparison is meant to illustrate that an isolated adjustment does not necessarily replicate the effect of a prolonged tightening campaign such as the one that ran from March 2022 to July 2023, during which the Fed accumulated 550 basis points of hikes and the crypto market went through a pronounced bear cycle.
According to Grayscale, Effects May Vary by Sector
However, Grayscale does not argue that higher rates are irrelevant to the ecosystem. The firm notes that the impact may vary by segment: stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether, for example, see their revenues increase when rates on cash rise.
Likewise, higher yields on tokenized bonds and money market funds could redirect flows toward onchain capital. The conclusion is that cryptocurrencies are a diverse universe, where different assets and businesses respond differently to changes in the cost of money, in a way analogous to what occurs across rate-sensitive sectors in traditional finance.
Reports published around the time of the Fed’s decision showed a muted initial reaction in Bitcoin and other large-cap digital assets, a behavior consistent with Grayscale’s thesis, though the firm clarifies that its analysis is more a view on the likely policy pattern than a certainty about price direction.
