TL;DR:
- Major banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
- CME FedWatch places the probability of a quarter point hike at 87.3%, up from 61.9% at the end of August after hotter inflation data.
- Bitcoin remains below $80,000 after briefly topping $79,000, leaving traders exposed to another potential volatility spike around the Fed decision closely.
Wall Street’s largest banks are converging on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike at Wednesday’s policy decision, after hotter inflation data pushed expectations decisively toward tighter policy. UBS, HSBC, Barclays, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase all expect an increase. The striking shift is how quickly major institutions abandoned earlier expectations for no September move. CME FedWatch now assigns an 87.3% probability to a quarter point hike, up from 61.9% at the end of August, leaving markets heavily positioned for a change in the federal funds target.
The following banks expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 25 bps this week
• UBS
• HSBC
• Barclays
• Citigroup
• Wells Fargo
• Morgan Stanley
• Goldman Sachs
• Bank of America
• JPMorgan Chase— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) September 14, 2026
The repricing followed August core consumer inflation rising 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus estimate. Personal consumption expenditures inflation is running at 3.7%, while oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel, adding another source of pressure. Higher inflation and renewed energy costs have made the case for further tightening increasingly difficult for banks to dismiss. Bank of America expects 75 basis points of hikes during 2026, UBS projects 50 basis points of tightening by year end, and HSBC, Barclays and Morgan Stanley also see multiple increases rather than a single isolated move.
Bitcoin Faces Fed Decision Below Major Resistance
Bitcoin enters the decision in a fragile position after briefly crossing $79,000 on Monday, when more than $100 million in short positions were liquidated within 30 minutes. The cryptocurrency later slipped back toward $77,000, with analysts identifying $79,500 to $80,000 as a zone where selling pressure could intensify. Bitcoin’s repeated failure around $80,000 leaves the market unusually exposed to Wednesday’s rate decision. An inflation surprise earlier in September already triggered about $562 million in liquidations, showing how rapidly leveraged positions can unwind when monetary expectations shift against risk assets.
The Federal Open Market Committee began its two day meeting Tuesday, with the rate decision due Wednesday against a backdrop of tightening expectations and elevated crypto volatility. Bitcoin advocate Anthony Pompliano has argued that the Fed ideally should not raise rates, but major banks and futures markets are leaning strongly in the opposite direction. The immediate question is whether a widely expected 25 basis point hike is already absorbed or still capable of forcing another repricing across Bitcoin and broader risk markets. With BTC still below $80,000, the decision arrives at a technically sensitive moment for traders facing renewed volatility.
