TL;DR
- CNBC analysis shows over 45,000 Polymarket markets recorded zero trading volume, revealing extreme inactivity across long-tail contracts.
- Around 70% of closed markets stayed below $10,000, while bots generated over 80% of activity in thin markets.
- Despite this, prediction markets surged during the 2026 World Cup, with weekly volumes reaching $5.4 billion, showing strong concentration in headline events and limited participation elsewhere.
The report uses Polymarket’s Gamma API and finds that trading is heavily concentrated in a small number of contracts, while most markets show little or no liquidity. Although overall volumes rise during major global events, the underlying distribution remains highly uneven across categories and time periods.
Market Data
The analysis of closed-market data reveals that more than 45,000 markets registered zero trading activity, while roughly 70% of contracts stayed under $10,000 in total volume. This suggests that liquidity is not broadly distributed but instead clustered around a small group of high-interest outcomes. The dataset, sourced from Polymarket’s Gamma API, counts both sides of trades, which can inflate perceived activity levels in reporting.
Further breakdown shows that fewer than 10% of markets reached between $100,000 and $1 million, reinforcing the idea that most prediction contracts remain inactive after creation. Analysts note that this pattern is consistent with attention-driven trading environments, where users concentrate capital on well-known events while experimental markets struggle to attract sustained participation over time.
Bots And Liquidity Concentration During World Cup Surge
Prediction markets expanded sharply during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with weekly volumes climbing from $65 million to $5.4 billion, peaking at $5.6 billion in mid-cycle trading. The surge was driven mainly by a small number of sports-related contracts, while thousands of other markets remained inactive or lightly traded. This reinforces the idea of high concentration in event-driven liquidity spikes.
Research cited in the report shows that bots account for more than 80% of activity in low-volume markets, based on trading frequency and wallet behavior patterns. These automated participants disproportionately affect thin markets, while larger contracts attract more organic flow. Kalshi showed similar structural patterns, suggesting that this is not isolated to one platform but reflects broader dynamics in prediction market design.
Overall, the data points to a dual structure where a small group of contracts drives most measurable activity, while tens of thousands remain dormant. As volumes increase during global events, liquidity concentration, bot-driven activity, and reporting methodology differences become key variables in interpreting market health across platforms.
