Polymarket announced it will replace the single-price snapshots it used to settle its short-term crypto contracts with time-weighted average prices, known as TWAP, following months of trader complaints and investigations that identified systematic manipulation patterns in its settlement windows.
The move comes after researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that 821 accounts made $8.2 million in windows classified as likely manipulated, with unusually large orders on Binance in the final seconds before settlement, followed by rapid reversals in the bitcoin price.
Up/down polymarkets just got upgraded.
Trade 5m, 15m, & hourly crypto up/downs with time-weighted average pricing (TWAP).
To celebrate, we're giving away $1M in liquidity rewards across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, BNB, & DOGE polymarkets. pic.twitter.com/48zobR5ir9
— Polymarket Traders (@PolymarketTrade) August 7, 2026
According to Polymarket, 5-minute markets will shift to a 30-second average, while 15-minute and 4-hour markets will use a 60-second one. Data will be provided through Chainlink Data Streams.
To sustain liquidity during the transition, Polymarket announced $1 million in rewards distributed across all affected markets throughout August. The study concluded that, excluding market makers, 93% of losses in manipulated windows fell on retail traders, which led to direct criticism of the structural design of Polymarket’s settlement system.
Source: https://x.com/i/status/2085516393420632550
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