TL;DR:
- Bitcoin reversed Monday’s rise toward $80,000 and fell back near $77,000 as Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act dropped from 34% to 17%.
- Broader crypto markets weakened while U.S. equity futures rose, making Tuesday’s decline increasingly crypto-specific ahead of the Senate procedural vote.
- Futures open interest declined and taker selling increased, but positive funding and call-heavy options positioning showed traders still see upside if the bill advances.
Bitcoin surrendered Monday’s late rally on Tuesday, falling back toward $77,000 after briefly climbing close to $80,000 as optimism around the U.S. CLARITY Act faded. BTC had reached about $79,427 before reversing, leaving the asset roughly 6.6% below its September 4 high of $82,284. The rapid reversal shows how tightly Bitcoin’s short-term momentum has become linked to expectations around the Senate vote. Polymarket odds of the legislation becoming law in 2026 dropped from 34% to 17% overnight after Democrats submitted a counterproposal to the latest Republican draft, increasing uncertainty before the procedural decision.
The political setback coincided with broad weakness across crypto markets. Ether fell around 1.6% to roughly $2,475, Solana lost about 2% near $100, and more than 90 of the 100 largest tracked crypto assets traded lower. The decline looked increasingly crypto-specific because traditional risk assets moved in the opposite direction. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.43% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.35%, while the Dollar Index advanced only modestly. The split reversed Monday’s pattern, when crypto had outperformed as technology stocks weakened, and placed renewed focus on whether Tuesday’s Senate decision could restore confidence or deepen the retreat.
Derivatives Show Traders Cutting Risk Before The Vote
Futures positioning reflected the same caution. Aggregate crypto open interest fell about 1% to $135 billion while trading volume surged 54% to $207 billion, suggesting traders were closing positions faster than fresh leverage was entering. Bitcoin’s pullback was accompanied by active taker selling and weakening demand for leveraged exposure. Bitcoin futures open interest remained below 680,000 BTC, while open interest in Ether, Solana and XRP also continued declining. Solana futures fell to about 58.81 million tokens, their lowest level since May, and negative cumulative volume delta across major assets indicated sellers were driving price action through market orders.
Yet positioning was not entirely bearish. Funding rates remained positive for Bitcoin, while higher-strike calls dominated Bitcoin and Ether options activity. The market is defensive, but traders have not abandoned the possibility of an upside reaction if the CLARITY Act advances. The Senate vote is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET and must invoke cloture, while failure could delay market-structure legislation until after the November midterms. With the Federal Reserve announcing its rate decision Wednesday, Bitcoin faces consecutive catalysts that could determine whether $77,000 holds or rejection near $80,000 becomes a deeper correction.
