TL;DR
- Polymarket Odds: The CLARITY Act fell to 19% after Democrats rejected the revised ethics language and began preparing a counterproposal.
- Democratic Concerns: Senators Warnock, Warner and Gallego said the updated text still failed to address corruption risks and enforcement gaps tied to the CLARITY Act.
- Stakeholder Pushback: State attorneys general, tribal gaming groups and banking associations warned that the CLARITY Act leaves major loopholes, adding pressure ahead of Tuesday’s procedural vote.
Odds for the CLARITY Act on Polymarket slid sharply on Monday after briefly rising the day before, as Senate Democrats signaled they were not convinced by Republicans’ latest attempt to finalize their crypto market structure framework. Traders initially reacted positively to a revised Republican draft that added new ethics language, pushing the odds to 35%. Confidence faded quickly, though, with the market dropping to 19% as concerns about the updated text intensified.
News: Democrats have sent their Clarity Act counterproposal over to GOP negotiators, per 3 people with knowledge of the matter https://t.co/Bf9zNA2dhr
— Jasper Goodman (@Jasper_Goodman) September 15, 2026
Democrats Push Back on Revised Ethics Language
Senator Mark Warner reportedly said the new ethics section was not “near enough,” prompting Democrats to begin assembling a counterproposal. Senator Raphael Warnock argued that lawmakers should not advance legislation that fails to address corruption risks occurring “in real time,” while Senator Ruben Gallego said the latest offer left “much to be desired.” Staff for Senator Elizabeth Warren circulated talking points warning that the proposed state attorney general enforcement mechanism could be overridden by White House ethics officials.
Democrats sent their counterproposal to Republicans late Monday, according to Politico. The move came just hours before a procedural vote that requires 60 senators to keep the CLARITY Act moving. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has privately urged colleagues to support advancing the bill, even as others remain skeptical.
Republicans Say Concessions Are Exhausted
Republican negotiator Senator Cynthia Lummis said President Donald Trump had already accepted two major ethics provisions and that there was “nothing left to give.” White House cryptocurrency adviser Patrick Witt echoed that view, saying Republicans had “gone to great lengths” to address objections in the CLARITY Act, with any remaining changes amounting to punctuation.
Industry groups continued pressing for progress. Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger said the bill would provide clear rules, protect consumers and deter illicit activity while keeping crypto development in the US. She argued that the industry had made meaningful concessions to help build bipartisan support.
Opposition From Key Stakeholders Intensifies
Resistance remains strong. A coalition of 18 state attorneys general opposes the CLARITY Act, and the Indian Gaming Association urged tribes to push senators to vote against it, saying the bill’s decentralized finance provisions do not resolve concerns about prediction markets. Banking trade groups also warned that the revised text leaves loopholes for stablecoin rewards that resemble deposit interest. With the procedural vote looming, uncertainty continues to cloud the CLARITY Act and its path forward.
