TL;DR
- Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s rebound is being driven by perpetual futures, while spot demand remains negative through most of April.
- U.S. spot ETFs drew $786 million one week and $823 million the next, and Strategy bought 34,164 BTC, yet on-chain apparent demand stayed weak.
- The warning is that without fresh spot recovery, rising open interest and stronger funding could leave the bounce vulnerable to another unwind.
Bitcoin’s rebound is forcing traders to ask a harder question than price can answer: what kind of demand is behind this move? The warning is that Bitcoin’s bounce appears to be driven by perpetual futures positioning rather than fresh spot buying. BTC was trading near $77,500 after failing to break through $80,000. Price has recovered, but the structure behind the advance looks more like leverage returning than broad accumulation.
Bitcoin is currently futures-driven.
Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys.
Historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover. pic.twitter.com/HcCjBQTniL
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 27, 2026
The rally is climbing, but the foundation still looks thin
Ki Young Ju’s reading of the market turns on a gap between two forms of demand that do not usually diverge without consequences. Perpetual futures demand has moved back into positive territory through April, while spot demand growth has remained below zero for most of the month. That split matters because leveraged futures positions can be opened quickly and unwound just as fast, whereas spot buying requires new capital willing to absorb supply directly. A rebound driven mainly by derivatives can look strong for a while, but it also leaves the market more exposed if confidence wobbles.
That is what makes the recovery feel less secure than the headline move suggests. Even after heavy institutional buying, the underlying spot signal has not fully turned. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $786 million in their strongest weekly inflow since February, then attracted another $823 million the following week, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading demand. Strategy also added 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion at an average price of $74,395, lifting total holdings to 815,061 BTC. Yet 30-day on-chain apparent demand was around negative 87,600 BTC earlier in the month, implying that selling from existing holders and miners outweighed fresh spot absorption.
The broader implication is not just that Bitcoin is rallying on leverage, but that the market may still be waiting for the kind of demand shift that defines a more durable turn. Historically, the more convincing end to a bear phase arrives when both spot and futures demand recover together, not when one outruns the other. Funding rates have ticked higher and open interest is rising, reinforcing the idea that speculative positioning is building. If spot demand turns positive, this bounce could find sturdier footing. If it does not, the same leverage lifting prices could become the source of the next unwind.
