TL;DR:
- Bitcoin recorded sharp volatility in the last 24 hours, oscillating between $65,500 and $68,800 amid the conflict in the Middle East.
- Oil prices surpassed $120 per barrel following Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, triggering panic across traditional markets.
- While equity and commodity VIX indexes spiked, Bitcoin’s implied volatility index, BVIV, remained stable and close to 60%.
The crypto market opened the week showing remarkable resilience against the chaos that shook traditional assets. Bitcoin is trading around $68,900, having risen 3% in the last few hours after an erratic session. All this while oil prices climbed to highs not seen since 2022, surpassing $120 per barrel following Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities.
Equity markets responded with sharp declines: the Nikkei 225 closed down 5.20%, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.70%, and S&P 500 futures were trading with losses of around 0.90%. In contrast, Bitcoin’s market capitalization held around $1.35 trillion, with a dominance of 56.5% over the rest of the crypto assets according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin: A Safe Haven Amid the Geopolitical Storm
The most significant aspect of the session was not the price movement itself, but the relative stability of Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, known as BVIV, which held near 60% while Wall Street equivalents for equities, oil, and gold climbed to multi-week highs. Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, noted in a statement that market makers are “short gamma” at the $60,000 and $75,000 levels, meaning any breakout beyond that range could amplify volatility significantly.
The Key Factors
On the macroeconomic front, G7 nations are weighing a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to contain prices, while the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. Trading volume on the Japanese platform Bitflyer surged 200% over the last 24 hours, surpassing Coinbase and Binance in relative activity, reflecting the nervousness of Asian investors redirecting capital.
Ethereum, for its part, once again challenged the $2,000 resistance level. Although it managed to break above it by just a few dollars, it looks fragile. BNB rose 3.2% and surpassed $635. XRP climbed 1.15% and is hovering around $1.36. Solana posted a jump of 3.9% and is approaching $85. Cardano rose 2.3% and is trading at $0.2577. TRON is, for now, the only loser, though it fell just 0.5% and is trading around $0.2847.
