TL;DR:
- Dutch users can still access Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers prediction markets despite February’s Polymarket ban for operating without a gambling license.
- Ksa warned similar platforms fall under its supervision, yet providers frame products differently through gambling, decentralized blockchain and financial-contract narratives.
- Wider scrutiny spans Brazil, Europe and the United States, while research showing most traders lose money adds pressure for stricter, consistent enforcement across venues accessible to residents today.
Dutch users are still reaching prediction markets even after regulators pushed Polymarket out of the country, leaving a regulatory gap that looks hard to police. Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers continue offering event-based markets to Dutch users despite the February ban on Polymarket by the Dutch Gaming Authority, known as Ksa, for operating without a gambling license. The tension is access surviving enforcement, because a ban on one dominant platform has not cleared the field. Instead, it has exposed how quickly similar products can reappear through regulated, crypto-native and brokerage-style channels.
Prediction Markets Strain National Rulebooks
The Dutch case turns on classification as much as availability. Ksa warned that websites similar to Polymarket also fall under its supervision and can be sanctioned. Yet the platforms now visible to Dutch users present different regulatory faces. Kalshi appears to target local demand with markets tied to Dutch Eredivisie football and, previously, Dutch elections. Hyperliquid offers prediction markets from a decentralized blockchain environment. Interactive Brokers frames its contracts as financial products rather than gambling. In practical terms, the same user activity is being routed through competing legal narratives, complicating enforcement before any unified standard emerges.
That confusion is not limited to the Netherlands. Prediction markets are facing wider scrutiny as regulators try to decide whether they are gambling products, financial contracts, data markets or some hybrid that does not sit comfortably in existing law. Brazil recently moved to shut down 27 platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, while several European jurisdictions, including France, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland and Poland, have blocked or penalized unauthorized operators. Hungary and Portugal have also moved specifically against Polymarket. The pattern shows national regulators asserting perimeter control, even as platforms scale across borders faster than licensing regimes can respond in real time online.
The pressure is also building because user outcomes remain politically sensitive. Research from London Business School found that only 3% of prediction market participants make consistent profits, while nearly 70% lose money. Separately, anonymous traders correctly bet on events including the US attack on Iran and the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, raising concerns about possible advance knowledge. For Dutch regulators, the next test is consistent enforcement, because leaving Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers accessible after Polymarket’s ban risks turning a targeted action into a benchmark for regulatory arbitrage.
