TL;DR
- Glassnode Signal: The 86 reading reflects Bitcoin weakness more than altcoin strength, making this a relative-performance illusion rather than a confirmed Altcoin Season.
- CoinMarketCap Index: At 45, the stricter index shows no real rotation into alts, far from the 75 needed for Altcoin Season.
- Market Structure: Sellers are exhausted, but buyers haven’t arrived; conditions resemble a base forming, not an active Altcoin Season.
Glassnode’s latest signal is flashing an 86 reading, a level that normally screams Altcoin Season. But the number alone doesn’t match what’s happening across the market. The label suggests alts are outperforming Bitcoin because capital is rotating into them. Instead, the data shows something far less explosive: alts are simply losing less during a period of Bitcoin weakness.
Glassnode’s Signal Shows Relative Survival, Not Strength
The mechanism behind Glassnode’s reading is the opposite of what most traders associate with Altcoin Season. Alts have been grinding lower for nearly two years, and the recent shift isn’t driven by buyers stepping in. It’s driven by Bitcoin drawing down harder. When BTC drops 10%, and alts fall 2%, the model counts that as an altcoin “win,” even though portfolios across the board are still shrinking. Glassnode itself notes that Bitcoin’s side of the equation is doing most of the work. The signal is detecting BTC weakness, not altcoin strength. It’s a sign that the bleeding has slowed, not that a rally has begun. In this framework, Altcoin Season becomes a measure of relative pain rather than absolute performance.
CoinMarketCap’s Index Shows No Real Rotation Yet
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index takes a stricter approach. It requires 75% of the top 100 coins, excluding stablecoins and wrapped assets, to outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day period before calling Altcoin Season. Today, the reading sits at 45, still firmly in Bitcoin-season territory and far from the 75 needed to flip. The range adds clarity. Over the past year, the index peaked at 78 on September 20, 2025, marking a true Altcoin Season, and bottomed at 14 on December 19, 2025. Today’s 45 sits closer to the trough than the peak. Recent movement reinforces the stagnation: 39 a month ago, 48 last week, 45 today.
A Market Building a Base, Not Breaking Out
Together, the two indicators describe a market in transition. After two years of pressure, sellers in the altcoin market are largely exhausted, which is why Glassnode’s reading is spiking. But removing sellers is only half of what defines Altcoin Season. The other half is buyers arriving in volume, and that part hasn’t materialized. Relative strength during a Bitcoin drawdown can look encouraging on a chart, but it doesn’t create a bull market. The signal worth watching is CoinMarketCap’s index pushing through 50 and toward 75 on the back of actual altcoin gains. Until that happens, the setup looks more like a base forming than a breakout underway.
