TL;DR:
- Crypto traders are betting SpaceX is worth $2.2 trillion, above the $1.8 trillion valuation set in its IPO at $135 per share.
- SpaceX perpetual futures on Hyperliquid and Binance are trading near $165, with over $69 million traded in the last 24 hours.
- Morningstar values the stock at $63, less than half the offering price, and assigns only a 7% chance to the Starship project achieving viability.
Crypto traders are betting that SpaceX is worth considerably more than traditional markets estimate. On platforms Hyperliquid and Binance, perpetual futures linked to Elon Musk’s company were trading near $165 on Thursday morning in New York, implying an approximate valuation of $2.2 trillion. The initial public offering set the price at $135 per share, equivalent to a valuation of $1.8 trillion, making this IPO the largest in history by a considerable margin.
Demand for the shares exceeded available stock by more than four times, though the offering terms will not be modified according to sources close to the process. The company would thus raise around $75 billion in its Nasdaq stock market debut.
The Crypto Market Acts as a Thermometer for SpaceX
Interest in SpaceX perpetuals grew following the precedent set by Cerebras Systems Inc., whose shares rose 68% on their first day of trading after similar contracts anticipated the result. SpaceX perps have averaged more than $26 million in daily volume since their launch on May 18, a figure that escalated to over $69 million in the last 24 hours. Binance recorded more than $182 million traded in that same period.
Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at digital assets fund Apollo Crypto, noted that those buying these contracts today are betting that SpaceX debuts with at least a 20% premium over the IPO price. Those taking the opposite position, on the other hand, expect a stock market debut without major surprises.
Perpetual futures carry no legal claim over the underlying companies and are exposed to their own risks: funding rates, variable liquidity and liquidation mechanisms that can distort prices just as much as the actual valuation of the asset.
Between Mars and Reality
SpaceX’s projects range from satellite internet and artificial intelligence infrastructure to reusable rockets capable of carrying humans to Mars. However, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens values the stock at $63, less than half the offering price, and assigns just a 7% probability that the Starship project achieves commercial viability. The company is also being questioned over the speed of its stock market debut and over a supervoting share structure designed to keep control in Musk’s hands.
