TL;DR:
- Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple 30DMA fell to 0.74, signaling that miners are approaching the economic stress zone.
- The Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple retreated from 160 to 80, while the price dropped 21% since the last Difficulty Bottom.
- None of the three metrics has reached the extreme capitulation levels recorded during the 2018 and 2022 bear cycles.
Three key metrics of the mining economy are simultaneously pointing to mounting pressure on Bitcoin miners. The Puell Multiple 30DMA fell to 0.74, the Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple retreated from its peak of 160 to 80, and the BTC price has accumulated a 21% decline since the last Difficulty Bottom. The report was published by onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr. on his Adler Insight platform.
Bitcoin Miners in the Red Zone: How Far from Capitulation?
The Puell Multiple reflects the relationship between miners’ daily revenue and their 365-day annual average. Values below 1.0 indicate that current revenue is below the historical norm. Over the last ten days of May, the indicator fell from 0.83 to 0.74, while the raw value reached as low as 0.58, reflecting a sharp compression in daily revenues. At the cycle peak, when BTC was trading above $120,000, the 30DMA reached 1.33. However, at the bottom of the 2022 cycle the indicator touched 0.45, and in December 2018 it descended to 0.33. The current level signals stress, but not capitulation.
The direction of this movement is as relevant as the absolute value: the 30DMA has been in continuous decline for two weeks. If that pace is maintained, the 0.50 zone — the threshold at which mass equipment shutdowns began in 2022 — could be reached by the end of June.
The Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple complements Adler Jr.’s diagnosis. At 80, the level coincides with the range seen in November 2021, when the market had already passed peak euphoria but had not yet entered undervaluation. At the 2022 bottom it reached 33, and in February 2019 it touched 15. For the metric to emit a structural floor signal, a decline toward the 40 to 50 range would be required, which would imply either a further drop in Bitcoin’s price or a prolonged period of weak miner revenues.
A Key Signal the Market Has Not Yet Sent
The Miner Capitulation indicator is crucial: the 21% decline since the last Difficulty Bottom has already surpassed the -15% threshold marked on the chart as the alert zone. Nevertheless, the worst reading of 2022 reached -39%. If Bitcoin’s price continues to fall without an upward adjustment in difficulty, pressure could deepen toward the -30% range, a level historically associated with forced selling and equipment shutdowns.
The three metrics outline a coherent scenario: revenue compression, reduction of the speculative premium, and operational pressure in the red zone. Yet none has reached the values that historically marked the final lows of Bitcoin’s 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. The key, according to Adler, is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold the 0.50 level or whether the market will shift into survival mode.
