TL;DR
- The Bitcoin halving is generating diverse perspectives among industry experts.
- JPMorgan maintains a cautious view, suggesting that the event is already reflected in prices and could lead to a short-term bearish trend.
- Other industry leaders, such as Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, express confidence in a significant price increase for BTC, even reaching $100,000.
The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving is now here. This event, which happens approximately every four years, cuts in half the reward miners receive for validating transactions on the BTC network. Now, experts offer diverse opinions on what the future might hold for the industry’s most important cryptocurrency.
A variety of perspectives on Bitcoin’s fate after the halving can be observed. On one hand, JPMorgan, one of the world’s largest financial firms, maintains a cautious view.
They believe the event is already priced in and that BTC could continue with a short-term bearish trend. Additionally, they argue that the increase in production costs after the halving could negatively affect miners’ profitability and, consequently, the cryptocurrency’s supply.
Bitcoin Booms or Busts
However, this opinion contrasts sharply with the confidence expressed by other industry leaders. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicted a significant increase in BTC’s price, even reaching $100,000, based on historical bullish performance after previous halvings. For Horsley, the reduction not only impacts current BTC holders but also generates new and constant demand, along with a decrease in the daily available supply.
I think people are dramatically underestimating the halving.
The market has never priced it in before, and won't have priced it in this time.
For the prior 3 halvings, after investors spent months discussing if it was priced in, here's what happened in the 12-months after…
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) April 19, 2024
On the other hand, Deutsche Bank analysts agree with JPMorgan’s view; for the German bank, the halving is already reflected in the prices and is unlikely to trigger a significant rally in the short term. However, they differ regarding the reduction in supply. They argue that this could support higher prices in the long term, especially considering the growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.
Ethereum and Altcoins Overtaking Bitcoin?
Stepping away from the analysis of major entities, cryptocurrency expert Michaël van de Poppe offers an interesting perspective. Van de Poppe suggests that attention could shift towards Ethereum and projects related to decentralized infrastructure and real-world assets. Additionally, he expects altcoins to show strength against their Bitcoin pairs after the halving frenzy, potentially triggering a shift in market leadership.
Expectance:
– #Bitcoin to consolidate.
– #Altcoins bouncing in their Bitcoin pairs.
– Narrative to shift to ETH and DePIN/RWA.
– Altcoin strength from in Q2/Summer.
– Corrections in Q3.It's going to be great, just buy the dip.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 17, 2024
In the last month, Bitcoin (BTC) lost 13% of its value compared to its recent ATH on March 14th, when it surged to $73,750, only to subsequently plummet, breaking even below the $60,000 mark. According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC is currently being traded just above $64,000 with a slight positive variation of 1% in the last 24 hours.
The halving has sparked a wide range of opinions among industry experts. Beyond the clear contrasts found, only time will tell which of these perspectives will materialize and what impact it will have on Bitcoin’s price and adoption.
