TL;DR:
- Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio reached its third highest level in history, at 4.5, signaling conditions similar to cycle lows.
- Long-term holders dominate the market after a 50% correction that eliminated much of the short-term speculation.
- Only in 2015 and 2022 was the ratio higher, at values of 5 and 7 respectively, both considered cycle lows.
The Bitcoin market may have completed its cyclical correction phase. That is what the RHODL ratio suggests, an onchain metric developed by Glassnode that measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and which reached a value of 4.5, its third highest reading in the network’s history.
The indicator compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term investors —generally those who retain between six months and three years— against that of short-term users, defined as those operating within windows of one day to three months. A rising ratio reflects that coins are aging and that speculative activity is declining, without necessarily implying a massive influx of new buyers.
The Return of Patient Holders
This behavior tends to emerge after deep corrections. Historical data shows similar patterns in 2015, 2019 and 2022, periods where short-term speculation was practically swept from the market. In the current cycle, a 50% correction over the past six months would have had the same effect, leaving the market mostly in the hands of investors with greater tolerance for volatility.
The only two moments when the ratio exceeded the current level were 2015, with a reading of 5, and 2022, with one of 7, both coinciding with historical cycle lows. This opens the possibility that there may be additional room for further price decline.
Bitcoin Moves Toward Stabilization
However, reaching even higher levels would require an even deeper collapse in short-term activity and a near-total exhaustion of demand, conditions that today appear less likely. Bitcoin’s recovery, which rose 25% from February lows, perpetual funding rates in negative territory, and a favorable macroeconomic environment —which pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs— point to a stabilization scenario rather than further deterioration.
Glassnode interprets these signals as more consistent with a market bottom than with a cycle top, which could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for Bitcoin.
