TL;DR:
- Hayes projected that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 before year-end, driven by fiscal expansion linked to defense spending.
- The BitMEX co-founder identified three key factors: AI-driven credit deflation, changes at the Fed, and a structural shift in how banks absorb public debt.
- A regulatory change in the bank leverage ratio could generate up to $4 trillion in additional credit, surpassing losses tied to AI displacement.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, projected at the Bitcoin Vegas 2026 conference that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 before year-end, supported by an expansion of global liquidity driven by defense spending and structural changes in the U.S. banking system.
Hayes: War, Debt and the New Logic of Money
Hayes built his argument around three pillars: AI-associated credit deflation, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and a shift in how commercial banks will absorb growing public debt. Regarding the conflict between the United States and Iran, he noted that markets have not reached a sufficient panic threshold to trigger a broad risk-off flight, allowing investors to focus on macroeconomic liquidity trends.
On the impact of artificial intelligence, Hayes described a silent process of credit contraction: automation erodes the revenues of software-as-a-service companies and threatens many high-value jobs, which represent a significant share of the collateral backing bank loans. He compared this phenomenon to subprime risk, given that many of the affected workers carry debt backed by incomes that are no longer as stable. This process, according to Hayes, was not recognized in time by central banks and contributed to Bitcoin‘s decline from its October highs, when it fell 40% while the Nasdaq remained relatively stable.
Outpacing the Losses Generated by AI
On monetary policy, Hayes ruled out the possibility that the incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, would impose genuine tightening. He argued that the need to maintain orderly bond markets in coordination with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will constrain any real attempt at contraction. He also described an accounting mechanism through which banks swap reserves for Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements, reducing the Fed‘s reported balance sheet without draining effective liquidity from the system.
Hayes also addressed the implementation of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio on April 1 as a catalyst. Citing S&P Global estimates, he stated that the regulatory change could unlock up to $1.3 trillion in new lending, which through the banking credit multiplier would translate into approximately $4 trillion in additional credit — a figure that far exceeds the losses associated with AI-driven labor displacement. “We had some volatility. We had a war. Now it’s time to break out. That’s why I think Bitcoin is going to go up,” Hayes said during his presentation.
