TL;DR:
- Bitcoin briefly surpassed $82,000 on Tuesday, currently trading in the $80,600 range.
- Arthur Hayes’ projection places the next level of explosive acceleration at $90,000.
- The Maelstrom fund maintains significant positions in assets such as HYPE and Zcash, with expansion plans toward NEAR.
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, stated that the bull cycle has returned to the Bitcoin market, adding that the recovery from the $60,000 floor marks the beginning of a new expansion phase.
Hayes published an essay last Monday highlighting the return of the pioneer crypto to its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, presenting this as a logical conclusion within the current context. Recently, the asset traded near $80,000, which would imply a projected 55% advance to reach the target.
Hayes identified $90,000 as the technical threshold where the rally could become “explosive.” At that level, sellers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to acquire Bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating bullish pressure systemically.
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Role of AI
Two determining macroeconomic factors support Hayes’ thesis. One is the capital expenditure destined for Artificial Intelligence (AI). The analysis indicates that financing for this technology has moved from depending on the cash flow of large software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks.
Data from the report mentions that the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China are reportedly easing financial conditions to sustain this development. In the specific case of China, banking institutions are said to be redirecting capital previously destined for the real estate sector toward technological strengthening.
The conflict between the United States and Iran is the second factor mentioned. This situation has forced various sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and accumulate raw materials, instead of keeping their savings in dollar-denominated assets.
The combination of war and AI expansion creates an inflationary environment that Hayes defines as “higher for longer.” From the investor’s perspective, the political will to issue currency to finance both fronts creates the conditions for Bitcoin to outperform traditional markets. The asset’s performance against the Nasdaq 100 and gold since the start of the conflict on February 28 is cited as evidence of this trend reversal.
Strategic Positioning and Market Risks
Regarding the Maelstrom fund portfolio, significant positions in the Hyperliquid HYPE token and Zcash (ZEC) were confirmed. Hayes announced that NEAR will be his next choice, based on the privacy narrative and the protocol architecture, which could generate positive cash flow for the project.
Nonetheless, the report warns of two scenarios that could halt the market advance. The first refers to a possible Initial Public Offering (IPO) or massive merger in the AI sector that the market cannot absorb, which would break the current euphoria phase.
The second risk is linked to the 2028 political cycle. According to Hayes, if a U.S. presidential contender adopts an anti-AI platform to limit capital expenditure, lenders could reconsider the flow of credit to the sector, impacting the global liquidity of digital assets. Investors are expected to monitor the $90,000 level in the coming days to validate the strength of the movement.
