TL;DR:
- The crypto market kicks off July with a $140 billion drop in the prior week and Bitcoin hovering around $59,000.
- The European Union’s MiCA framework transition period expires on July 1, leaving Binance without a license in the region.
- The U.S. jobs report on Thursday and ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be the key indicators to watch this week.
This week arrives loaded with adverse signals for the crypto market. The sector’s total market capitalization fell to $2.13 trillion, its lowest level since September 2024, after roughly $140 billion evaporated over the past seven days.
Bitcoin retreated to $59,000 during Monday’s Asian session, while Ethereum failed to hold above $1,570. The traditional markets’ fear and greed index dropped to 24.8, its lowest reading since early April.
Key Events This Week:
1. US Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Strikes – Today
2. May JOLTs Job Openings data – Tuesday
3. June CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
4. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Wednesday
5. June Jobs Report – Thursday
6. US Markets Closed, Happy 4th…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, 2026
The Resumption of Conflict in the Middle East
Adding to the market’s inherent weakness is a highly significant geopolitical factor: the United States carried out military strikes against Iranian targets in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. The escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is generating uncertainty over commodity flows and rattling risk markets globally. Cryptocurrencies, which were already trading in the red, absorbed the impact of the news without finding firm support.
The Jobs Report Could Move the Market
On the macroeconomic front, this week’s calendar includes JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, and the June nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. The latter is especially relevant: it is the only employment figure the Federal Reserve will receive before its July meeting. A strong number would raise expectations for higher rates and tighten conditions for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a weak reading would reinforce concerns about stagflation. According to BarChart, the market is already pricing in a moderate figure, meaning the greater threat would be an upside surprise.
Finally, the transition period for the MiCA framework in the European Union expires on July 1. Binance failed to obtain the required license, which will give other platforms the opportunity to capture its user base in the region. That same day, Robinhood will hold its product launch event “The World is Flat,” featuring the participation of CEO Vlad Tenev and the company’s general director of cryptocurrencies, Johann Kerbrat.
