TL;DR:
- Crypto markets kicked off June in bearish territory; Bitcoin posted a 3.6% loss in May and is trading near $73,000.
- The U.S. Congress resumes activity this week with the close of the comment period on the GENIUS Act and a new window to consolidate the Clarity Act in the Senate.
- May’s jobs report, due Friday, will be the most important macroeconomic data point of the week for crypto markets.
The first week of June arrives loaded with tensions for the crypto industry: markets are showing weakness while the United States Congress resumes its legislative activity, and the rules of the game for stablecoin issuers could soon be redefined.
Bitcoin closed May with a 3.6% decline after two months in the green, touched a high of $74,000 over the weekend and returned to the $72,000 range in the early hours of Monday. Ethereum, for its part, lost the $2,000 level once again.
Crypto markets traded flat over the weekend after posting considerable losses the previous week. Analysts at 10x Research noted that “several catalysts are converging in June and could prove decisive for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory,” while acknowledging that ETF outflows, stablecoin contraction and trading volumes at historic lows paint a picture where conviction is nearly absent.
Congress Steps Back Into the Ring
The close of the comment periods on the regulatory framework of the GENIUS Act —involving the Treasury, the FDIC and FinCEN— represents one of the most significant milestones of the week. What was until now legislation is set to become operational rules that issuers and crypto firms will be required to follow. On Wednesday, June 3, the Senate will reopen the window to attempt to consolidate the Clarity Act into a single vehicle alongside CFTC provisions and updates to the GENIUS Act itself, with the goal of reaching a signature by August.
Banks have been lobbying for months to block the rollout of yield-bearing stablecoins, a push that already delayed the Clarity Act for several months. The total value of stablecoins in circulation reached a record $322 billion at the end of May. Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s global head of market development, described them as “the bridge between traditional finance and digital liquidity.” The European Central Bank, meanwhile, warned that these instruments could entrench dollar dominance.
Crypto Markets Await the Fed’s Rate Decision
On the macroeconomic front, May’s nonfarm payrolls report —with an estimate of 96,000 new jobs and an expected unemployment rate of 4.3%— will be the most closely watched data point of the week. The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate, and the labor market is one half of it: any surprise could shift rate expectations and, in turn, appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
