Bitcoin has risen roughly 7% since the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated on February 28, outperforming both Gold and the Nasdaq 100, according to market data shared on March 12 by Arthur Hayes.
Hayes published a normalized performance chart comparing the three assets from the start of the conflict through mid-March. Using the same baseline starting point allowed for a direct comparison of relative price movement. Over that period, Bitcoin advanced about 7%, while gold declined roughly 2% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped by approximately 0.5%, highlighting divergent reactions among traditional safe-haven assets and digital markets.
Despite the overall gain, Bitcoin’s price action during the period showed notable volatility. Following reports of a military strike involving the United States and Israel targeting Iran, the cryptocurrency briefly dropped from around $66,000 to slightly above $63,000. Prices later rebounded toward $67,000 after reports of the death of Ali Khamenei circulated in global media coverage.
Analysts at London Crypto Club observed similar behavior during previous geopolitical shocks, including escalations in the Israel–Palestine conflict. According to their assessment, Bitcoin tends to react to extreme market scenarios on both ends of the risk spectrum, sometimes behaving like a risk asset alongside equities while also attracting flows during uncertainty.
Additional on-chain data suggests tightening exchange supply. Analysts from Arab Chain reported that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index recently climbed to 5.10, its highest level since October 2025. The indicator measures how much Bitcoin is immediately available for sale on the exchange, and rising readings typically appear when holders move assets to cold storage instead of leaving them on trading platforms.
A different outlook came from Mike McGlone, who suggested that rising commodity prices could drive a broader peak in risk assets during the first quarter of 2026. In that scenario, oil could approach $120 per barrel, Bitcoin could climb toward $90,000, copper might reach $6 per pound, and silver could approach $100 per ounce as volatility spreads across global markets.
Source: Market data shared by Arthur Hayes on X
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and geopolitical developments can significantly influence asset prices.
