TL;DR
- Bitcoin faces a $13.74B options expiry on November 28, with traders split between bearish hedges and bets on a rebound.
- Only 22% of positions are currently profitable; most will let contracts expire, using the expiry as a capital reset to define the market’s next move.
- Ethereum also faces a $1.73B expiry dominated by calls.
Bitcoin is heading into an options expiry that could redefine its market dynamics in the coming days. Contracts worth $13.74B, one of the largest batches of the year, expire on November 28, and the market shows a sharp division between bearish bets and positions anticipating a breakout above six figures.
On one side, a group of traders is hedging against declines below $85,000, stacking protection against fear-driven selling. On the other, a wave of longer-dated calls between $102,000 and $105,000 aims to capitalize on a potential rebound after the options settle. Very few positions sit in between, highlighting that traders are avoiding the midpoint.
Bitcoin Splits Traders
The current dynamic responds less to public sentiment and more to liquidity risk. Bitcoin’s recent drop into the $80,000 zone did not trigger fear over the price itself but over the speed of the move and funding volatility. This behavior increased derivatives activity, pushing open interest on Deribit to $43B, the highest in the platform’s history.
The “max pain” price stands at $100,000, but traders are not expecting an immediate squeeze. Only 22% of positions are currently profitable, and most will let contracts expire. This expiry acts as a capital reset: once contracts settle, the market can determine its next direction, whether a temporary relief or the start of a deeper correction.
Higher Confidence in Ethereum (ETH)
This situation is not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) faces a $1.73B expiry dominated by calls, with a max-pain level at $3,400 while the spot trades around $3,007. Confidence in Ethereum is higher, though its performance will partially depend on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Total open interest across the crypto market has reached $30.8B, showing that traders remain positioned despite low fear, which holds at 22 according to the volatility index. The message is clear: no one is betting on the midpoint. This expiry will determine whether the market finds relief or enters a phase of heightened selling pressure, marking a crucial moment for liquidity and Bitcoin’s direction in the coming weeks
