TL;DR
- Price target: VanEck reiterates that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by year-end 2025, citing policy support, ETF inflows, broadening activity, and August highs near $124,000 alongside low volatility that can precede sharp moves as investors return.
- Flows and supply: ETFs hold $151.9B after $54.97B net inflows, ETPs and DATs bought +54K and +72K BTC in July, whales added 225,320 since March, public treasuries sit at 951K, and 294 entities hold more than 3.67M BTC.
- Volatility and structure: CME basis hit 9%, call put 3.21x, implied vol 32%, a 25% OTM 1-year call costs 6% of spot, hashrate 902 EH/s, miner share 31.5%, and VanEck still maintains its $180K year-end target.
VanEck emphasizes a strong prediction for the end of the year: Bitcoin might hit $180,000 before the end of 2025. In a mid-August research update, head of digital assets Matthew Sigel and analyst Nathan Frankovitz argue that policy tailwinds, institutional inflows, and tightening supply support fresh all-time highs. Their note follows Bitcoin’s rebound to a new peak around $124,000 in August after an early-month dip and keeps the $180K target intact despite unusually muted volatility.
Activity broadened as BTC dominance eased toward 59.7%, transactions rose 26% month over month to 12.9M, and median fees fell 13% to 421 sats, signaling healthier throughput across the network today.
Drivers Behind the $180K Target
VanEck cites a more favorable U.S. policy climate alongside accelerating institutional adoption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $151.9B in assets on $54.97B of net inflows, while corporate and fund allocator interest expands the buyer base. The firm frames 2025 as a supercharged continuation, not a new cycle, with breadth beyond bitcoin improving liquidity conditions.
Flows and On-Chain Supply
In July, ETPs bought 54,000 BTC, while Digital Asset Treasuries acquired 72,000 BTC. On-chain, whales and sharks holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 225,320 coins since March 2025 and now hold 13.62M BTC. Public treasuries control about 951K BTC, and 294 entities collectively hold more than 3.67M BTC, reinforcing a supply squeeze narrative.
Derivatives and Volatility Setup
Futures and options positioning tilts bullish as the CME 3-month basis hit 9% and the call put ratio rose to 3.21x. Implied volatility sits near 32%, well below the 1-year average, with a 25% OTM 1-year call costing roughly 6% of spot and total option premiums of $1.1B over 30 days. VanEck warns compressed vol can precede sharp moves as investors return from summer.
Mining and Market Structure
Hashrate reached a record 902 EH/s in August, while revenue per EH/s climbed to $59.4K, underscoring resilient miner economics. U.S.-listed miners’ share rose to 31.5% as consolidation and AI hosting deals gained traction, even as miner equities diverged. VanEck acknowledges risks from macro shifts and low vol financing pressure, yet maintains the $180K year-end target.
