TL;DR
- Ukraine blocked Polymarket for operating without a gambling license.
- The site’s blocking is uneven across Ukrainian internet providers.
- Global scrutiny of prediction markets as gambling intensifies this year.
Ukrainian authorities restricted access to the Polymarket website. The National Commission for State Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) executed the blocking. The official measure cites the lack of a required gambling license to operate in the country. The platform allows users to bet on future events, an activity Ukraine classifies as online gambling. Resolution number 695 from the NCEC served as the basis for the regulatory action.
First, the state agency PlayCity assessed Polymarket’s compliance. PlayCity oversees the gambling and betting sector in Ukraine. Its role involves verifying operators follow local laws and consumer protection policies. On November 27, PlayCity identified Polymarket as a non-compliant operator with regulations.
Subsequently, the assessment moved to the National Commission for the Development of the Economy. This body made the formal decision to restrict access on December 10. The commission ordered electronic communications service providers to implement the block. The domain polymarket.com entered Ukraine’s public registry of blocked resources.
War-Related Bets Drew Public Scrutiny
The regulatory decision followed a period of critical attention on Polymarket in Ukrainian media. The platform allowed prediction markets related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Specifically, users could bet on events like the timing of a possible occupation of cities in Donbas. In November, the platform listed 97 war-related prediction markets with a total volume nearing $97 million.
A factor that increased controversy involved the use of external data. Polymarket used the API from the open-source intelligence project DeepState without authorization. The integration fed markets speculating on the occupation of Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) became involved in an incident. A change to its conflict map affected the resolution of bets on Polymarket, generating accusations of manipulation.
Transaction volume related to Ukraine on the platform grew steadily. In December, the platform settled approximately 240 bets on the topic, with a total volume exceeding $270 million. The nature of these markets generated considerable ethical rejection within Ukraine.
The technical implementation of the block shows inconsistencies. Some users in Ukraine can no longer access the polymarket.com website. Other users, however, report the platform remains accessible without restrictions. This uneven blocking suggests the filtering process by internet providers may be gradual.
Ukraine’s action fits within a context of growing global scrutiny of Polymarket. Recently, regulators in the state of Tennessee, United States, ordered the platform to cease operations. The stated reason is the same: violations of local gambling regulations. Official letters demanded Polymarket close open contracts and return user deposits in that jurisdiction by January 31. Countries like Romania, France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Thailand have also imposed similar restrictions, arguing the platform operates as an unlicensed gambling service. International regulatory pressure on prediction platforms continues to increase.
