TL;DR
- Polymarket and Parcl launch real estate prediction markets based on daily housing price indices.
- The markets will settle using Parcl’s indices, allowing forecasts of monthly, quarterly, or annual price increases or decreases.
- The initial rollout will focus on high-liquidity cities, expanding gradually to additional areas based on demand.
Polymarket and Parcl announced a partnership to create real estate prediction markets using Parcl’s daily housing price indices.
The markets will allow traders and analysts to anticipate price movements in major U.S. cities using objective, verifiable data. Polymarket will operate the markets, while Parcl will provide reference values and settlement information.
How These New Markets Will Work
Markets will settle according to Parcl’s daily indices, eliminating the need to deal with individual property complexity, leverage, or long time horizons. Traders can predict whether a city’s price index will rise or fall over monthly, quarterly, or annual periods, and threshold-style outcomes will be based on published index values. Each market will include a dedicated resolution page showing the final value, historical context, and calculation methodology, ensuring full transparency and public verification.
The program will initially focus on the largest U.S. housing markets, prioritizing high-liquidity cities. The rollout will be gradual, adding more metropolitan areas and index-based market types according to demand. Teams will also develop standardized templates and tools to facilitate the creation of new markets with consistent terms, dates, and reference points.
Polymarket: A Market to Measure Truth
Trevor Bacon, CEO of Parcl, said prediction markets represent a paradigm shift in how opinions are expressed and truth is measured. “Parcl is a reliable source for real estate pricing, and we believe the sector should be a major category within the prediction market ecosystem,” he said. Matthew Modabber, CMO of Polymarket, added that data clarity and verification are essential, and Parcl’s daily indices provide a solid foundation to build transparent and consistent markets.
One of the goals of the integration is to offer a faster, more transparent way to forecast housing prices in key cities, reducing the risks associated with direct property investment and long-term horizons.
This initiative positions Polymarket and Parcl as pioneers in tokenized and predictive real estate markets, combining prediction market liquidity with real-time housing price data
