TL;DR:
- Bitcoin rose 6% over the past week and K33 notes that 79% of the circulating supply is held by long-term holders, a historical record.
- Only 218,421 BTC older than two years were reactivated through June 6, the lowest figure since 2012, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- Wintermute, Glassnode and Bitfinex warn that ETF flows and institutional demand have yet to confirm a lasting market reversal.
Bitcoin posted a modest recovery over the past week, registering a 6% gain and stabilizing around $65,000 after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines. Research and brokerage firm K33 published a report in which it identifies signals that could mark the end of the ongoing bear market.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, highlighted that one of the most relevant features of the 2026 cycle is the extremely low reactivation of old coins. Through June 6, only 218,421 BTC older than two years had been reactivated, in contrast to the 1.18 million BTC reactivated on the same date in 2024. The only year with lower activity in that metric was 2012, when just 70,600 BTC met that criterion.
Bitcoin Holders Set a New All-Time High
That behavior translates into a concrete figure: 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held by long-term holders, the highest level ever recorded. According to Lunde, this demonstrates sustained accumulation and a gradual transition toward a more constructive market. The pattern aligns with what has been observed in all previous Bitcoin bear markets, where the most patient holders absorb supply as the market approaches its bottom.
The previous week, Lunde had noted that 50% of the circulating supply was underwater, a level historically associated with the final stages of bear markets, though frequently followed by one last drop before the rebound. In the new report, the analyst added that conditions have stabilized, ETF outflows have moderated and trading volume has retreated toward annual lows.
Macro Context Under Scrutiny and Diverging Forecasts
Not all analysts share K33’s optimism. Wintermute, Glassnode and Bitfinex recently warned that ETF flows, stablecoin growth and institutional demand are still not sufficient to confirm a lasting reversal. Some forecasts even contemplate a Bitcoin drop to $30,000.
For now, market attention is focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the first chaired by the new Federal Reserve head, Kevin Warsh. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged, though they keep open the possibility of hikes later in the year. With the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 near 0.6, any shift in the Fed’s communication could amplify BTC volatility, which historically shows greater sensitivity to macroeconomic developments during bear markets, according to Lunde.
