TL;DR:
- Geopolitical headlines and a 6 PM ET futures check-in set a risk-first tone as markets digest Iran-related weekend violence. Oil erased nearly half gap.
- A labor data blitz dominates March 2 to 6: ISM PMI Monday, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and jobs report plus retail sales Friday.
- Crypto is softer: total cap back to $2.35T, BTC rejected at $67,000 and near $66,300, ETH near $1,950, with major alts lower.
U.S. markets open into geopolitical noise after weekend U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and the week’s setup is volatility first, narratives second. Stock futures were set to react as trading resumed, while crypto was described as flat on Sunday before a retreat. President Donald Trump outlined “Operation Epic Fury,” saying the U.S. will avenge deaths of Americans, and operations continue until objectives are achieved. The Kobeissi Letter urged investors not to panic, noting oil erased nearly half its gap higher, with futures only marginally down and gold higher as the dust settles.
Key Events This Week:
1. US Futures React to Iran Situation – TODAY 6 PM ET
2. February ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday
3. February ADP Employment data – Wednesday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. January Retail Sales data – Friday
6. February Jobs Report -…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026
Macro calendar and market read-through
This week’s U.S. economic slate is labor-heavy, the dataset the Federal Reserve watches for policy. In practice, jobs prints become the week’s steering wheel: February ISM Manufacturing PMI lands Monday, providing a read on manufacturing. The employment tranche begins Wednesday with the ADP Employment report, and Initial Jobless Claims follow Thursday. Friday brings the February Jobs Report and also includes January Retail Sales. The report highlighted expectations for a 60,000 payroll gain, and a strategist questioned where the labor market goes after strong January gains but a weak 2025 trend overall.
For crypto, the macro tape is colliding with a market that already looks capped. The report said total crypto capitalization slid back to $2.35 trillion, erasing weekend gains as risk resets. Bitcoin was rejected at $67,000 three times in the past 24 hours and dipped to about $66,300 in the Monday Asian session, after trading sideways for three weeks. Ethereum failed to hold above $2,000 and retreated to around $1,950 at the time of writing, with altcoins mostly in the red; XRP, Solana, Cardano, Canton, and Stellar saw larger losses.
The takeaway for traders is to treat March 2 to 6 as a sequencing problem, not a single headline. With markets back in the red, the Kobeissi Letter flagged futures reaction at 6 PM ET to the Iran situation, before data accelerates. With PMI, ADP, jobless claims, retail sales, and the jobs report on deck, positioning may tighten around each print, especially if BTC keeps failing near $67,000. The playbook is straightforward: watch liquidity, respect levels, and stay nimble through Friday’s releases and into next week under disciplined risk controls.
