TL;DR
- Polymarket surpassed $100 million in monthly trading volume in June, driven by the anticipation of the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
- The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market accumulated $203.3 million in bets, with Trump as the favorite with a 63% chance.
- Bets on Biden’s possible withdrawal surged after the controversial debate, with probabilities of 43% and 9% for his potential exits before and after July 4th, respectively.
Polymarket, the innovative decentralized prediction platform, has surpassed $100 million in monthly trading volume during June. This amount has been mainly driven by the anticipation surrounding the United States 2024 presidential elections.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” prediction market on Polymarket has accumulated a total of $203.3 million in bets, distributed across 17 individual markets. Currently, the favorite to win the election is former President Donald Trump, with a 63% chance and a total of $24.7 million in bets for and against his victory. Close behind is the current President, Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets, although his odds have dropped from 34% to 19% following a controversial and deplorable performance in the presidential debate on June 28.
The debate triggered a spike in bets related to Biden’s possible withdrawal from the presidential race, with markets such as “Biden drops out of the presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4,” which currently have a probability of 43% and 9% respectively, and have seen more than $10 million in bets.
Polymarket: Trump Wins, Biden Withdraws?
Additionally, there are bets on other less conventional candidates, such as rapper Kanye West and Senator Elizabeth Warren, known for her anti-crypto stance. However, these markets show less than a 1% chance of success.
This marks the first time that Polymarket has crossed the $100 million threshold, according to data from Dune Analytics. The exponential growth represents a 620% increase compared to the trading volumes observed between January and May, which ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million.
The platform has also seen a significant increase in the number of monthly active traders, reaching 29,266 in June, which represents a 115% increase. Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) on the platform has increased by 69% over the past 30 days, reaching $40.2 million according to data from Token Terminal.
On the other hand, a series of surveys show the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in electoral decisions. A study by Harris Poll revealed that one in three American voters considers the candidates’ positions on cryptocurrencies when deciding their vote. Additionally, a survey by Paradigm shows that 48% of cryptocurrency owners plan to vote for Trump, while 39% support Biden.
