TL;DR
- Coinbase expects a bullish crypto market in the second half of 2025, driven by stronger economic data, lower interest rates, and rising corporate demand.
- The firm warns about companies holding leveraged bitcoin positions but sees limited short-term downside risk due to distant debt maturities.
- The U.S. Congress is moving forward with regulations on stablecoins and ETFs, which could reshape crypto market rules before the end of the year.
Coinbase Institutional has updated its outlook for the crypto market in 2025, projecting a bullish scenario for the second half of the year.
The firm believes that a combination of improved economic expectations in the United States, the possibility of interest rate cuts, and increased corporate adoption will drive prices higher, particularly for Bitcoin. Additionally, regulatory developments in the country could help reduce uncertainty in the coming months.
Coinbase Warns About the Strategy Model
However, the report highlights an imminent risk tied to the accumulation of cryptocurrencies by companies operating with leveraged debt. At present, 228 publicly traded companies collectively hold around 820,000 BTC.
At least 20 of them follow a financing model inspired by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which combines issuing convertible debt with bitcoin purchases for their balance sheets. These positions could trigger forced sales if the market experiences periods of stress, although Coinbase believes that the maturity dates for most of this debt, scheduled between 2029 and 2030, reduce immediate downside pressure.
Since December 2024, a revision to U.S. accounting rules has allowed companies to report the market value of their crypto holdings. This change eliminated a restriction that forced firms to record losses without recognizing unrealized gains. As a result, corporate interest surged, making it easier for companies to build these leveraged positions.
Recession Fears Ease, and Regulatory Changes Are Expected
On the macroeconomic front, Coinbase notes that recession concerns in the U.S. have eased after a brief GDP contraction earlier this year. Recent data points to a recovery, with the Atlanta Fed projecting 3.8% growth in early June. This improvement, combined with expectations of greater global liquidity and a reduced impact from trade tariffs, would support risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress is working on new legislation to regulate stablecoins and establish a legal framework for crypto markets. The possibility of passing the GENIUS and STABLE Acts before the August recess, along with the SEC’s review of roughly 80 ETF proposals, could reshape the market’s operational and investment landscape by late 2025.
