TL;DR
- The CFTC is investigating Adam Kinzinger over trades on Kalshi linked to the presidential pardon he received from Biden in January 2025.
- The former Republican representative claims he earned $823 from the transactions, that he read the platform’s rules, and that he had no insider information.
- Kalshi is also reviewing the trades; the platform already suspended three congressional candidates and permanently banned George Santos for similar cases.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Republican representative Adam Kinzinger over trades made on the prediction market Kalshi related to the presidential pardon he received from then-President Joe Biden. This was reported by Politico, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.
The transactions, carried out through a Kalshi account linked to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025, included two contracts: one on whether he himself would receive a pardon and another on whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. Biden did so in his final hours in the presidency, preemptively pardoning Kinzinger and other members of the House committee that investigated the January 6 Capitol attack.
Kinzinger: Conflict of Interest on Kalshi
The former legislator denies any wrongdoing. He noted that he had been out of office for two years when he placed the bets, that he was neither a congressman nor a candidate, and that he had no insider information. He also stated that he had previously read Kalshi’s rules, which, according to his interpretation, only prohibit trading when the user works for the relevant agency, can influence the outcome, or possesses non-public information. The earnings were modest: screenshots provided by Kinzinger himself show $823 obtained from approximately 25 trades, most of which resulted in losses.
However, Kalshi prohibits its users from betting on contracts in which they are direct participants, and the CFTC bars the use of material non-public information in the markets it regulates. Both the agency and the platform declined to comment to Politico, and Kinzinger stated that neither has contacted him as part of the investigation.
Kalshi’s Track Record with Political Figures
The platform has precedents in similar cases. In April, it suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races. In August, it permanently banned former representative George Santos after determining that he manipulated a market linked to his own attendance at the State of the Union address, obtaining approximately $18,000 in the process.
The CFTC is deepening its oversight of the sector. Last week, agency staff warned exchanges that contracts resolved based on the words or conduct of a named individual must be presumed susceptible to manipulation, one month after the agency fined a former White House employee $172,000 for trading in mention markets.
