TL;DR
- Bubblemaps identified a cluster of 9 wallets allegedly generating $2.4 million on Polymarket with a 98% success rate tied to US military-related events.
- The accounts placed trades shortly before major geopolitical developments involving Iran and moved funds through centralized exchanges before betting.
- The investigation has intensified concerns over insider activity in prediction markets, while crypto advocates argue that blockchain transparency makes suspicious behavior easier to trace than in traditional financial systems.
Polymarket is facing renewed scrutiny after blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps connected a group of wallets to highly successful bets tied to military events involving the United States and Iran. The findings renewed debate around decentralized prediction markets as the sector continues attracting traders seeking real-time geopolitical exposure.
NEW | šŗšø The biggest military insider?
A cluster of accounts made $2.4M betting on US military action with a 98% win rate
No one spotted him before š§µ pic.twitter.com/rsdjObZ9md
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) May 18, 2026
According to Bubblemaps, the wallet cluster generated approximately $2.4 million in profits through a series of carefully timed positions. The analytics platform said the accounts achieved a 98% win rate across several contracts related to military developments.
Bubblemaps Investigation Examines Polymarket Trading Patterns
The investigation traced activity across 9 wallets sharing similar funding behavior and trading strategies. Bubblemaps reported that the accounts received capital through centralized crypto exchanges shortly before entering positions on Polymarket.
Several trades were reportedly placed before major developments, including the Feb. 28 US strike on Iran, the reported killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the later ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Four wallets allegedly earned nearly $400,000 each from contracts predicting military action.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman stated that the company cannot definitively confirm insider trading. However, he noted that the wallet activity suggests access to privileged information or a strong informational advantage. The firm also identified a small number of losing trades earlier in February that may have been intended to reduce suspicion around the accounts.
US Regulators Increase Focus On Prediction Markets
The investigation arrives as US lawmakers continue discussing tighter oversight for event-based prediction platforms. Earlier this year, Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a proposal seeking to prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from offering contracts tied to wars, assassinations and terrorist attacks.
Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom signed an executive order restricting public officials from trading on prediction markets linked to events they may influence directly.
Despite growing regulatory pressure, supporters of decentralized platforms argue that blockchain technology offers transparency rarely found in conventional betting systems. Transactions linked to the suspected wallets remained publicly visible onchain, allowing analysts to track fund movements and trading activity without relying on internal leaks.
As decentralized prediction markets continue expanding, platforms such as Polymarket are expected to face stronger compliance demands while maintaining open participation through blockchain infrastructure.
