TL;DR
- ETF flows: Spot ETFs added $486.8 million as Bitfinex says renewed demand helped lift BTC.
- Profit exhaustion: Bitfinex highlights that spending cohorts have almost no profitable supply left to sell.
- Range pressure: Bitfinex notes repeated $65,000‑plus highs but no daily close above the band since July.
Bitcoin and equities flipped roles this week as Wall Street stumbled and crypto finally found breathing room. The S&P 500 has slipped for three straight sessions since Thursday’s record close, pressured by a 30‑year Treasury yield at 5.31% and Brent crude near $91. Bitcoin, which has lagged equities all summer, rose 2.6% on August 17 and closed yesterday at $64,775, its strongest finish in 10 days. According to Bitfinex, the move reflects both renewed ETF demand and a market where profit‑taking capacity is nearly depleted.
ETF flows return as spending cohorts run dry
Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin’s range-bound behavior since early June has been defined by narrow trading between $60,795 and $65,700, falling volatility and muted spot volume. This week’s advance, however, came with a clear engine: spot ETF inflows totaling $486.8 million across two sessions.
The vacuum behind the move is equally important. Spending data shows long‑term holders realizing minimal losses at the deepest ratios since June, short‑term holders transacting at break‑even, and the aggregate profit ratio of all coins moved on‑chain closing below par for 10 straight sessions.
Bitfinex highlights that the cohorts selling into strength have almost nothing left to sell at a profit or even break‑even. For the first time since early March’s Iran‑US volatility shock, BTC climbed while equities retreated. The recovery from Sunday’s weekly low of $62,724 was supported by a rare volume spike, a behavior Bitfinex says has been absent from prior tests of the range ceiling.
Range highs keep rejecting price despite shifting dynamics
Tuesday’s high of $65,080 marked BTC’s seventh daily high above $65,000 since August 5, all within the psychological band of $65,000‑65,700. Yet the market has not closed a single day above that level since July 26. Bitfinex points out that the manner of these retests is changing, with two sessions erasing the entire month’s relative‑performance gap versus equities.
The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio has remained below 1 for 10 consecutive sessions, signaling that every cohort is spending without profit. Bitfinex emphasizes that long‑term holder SOPR readings between 0.69 and 0.83 this week show coins being sold 19%‑22% below cost, placing acquisition levels between roughly $80,000 and $91,500. The firm says this reflects the terminal stage of long‑term holder saturation as the two‑year supply overhang clears.
