Multinational banking institution Standard Chartered has projected that the price of Bitcoin could reach approximately $200,000 by the end of 2025, provided that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved and successful in the United States. This prediction is based on the expectation that between 437,000 and 1.32 million BTC will be held in US-listed ETFs by the end of 2024, resulting in inflows of $50-100 billion.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets at Standard Chartered, mentioned that this projection is considered possible if the ETF-related flows materialize, considering this event as a “crucial moment” for normalizing institutional participation in BTC. According to Kendrick, ETF approval could generate a significant increase in demand and, consequently, in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Standard Chartered posting some moon math! $200,000 coming pic.twitter.com/IQueMhjgiP
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) January 9, 2024
Comparision Between the First Bitcoin ETF and the Gold Case
The comparison with the introduction of the first gold exchange-traded fund in 2004, the SPDR Gold Shares, serves as a reference for the projection. After its launch, the price of gold multiplied more than four times over a period of seven years. Standard Chartered suggests that BTC could follow a similar trajectory but with faster gains over a period of one to two years due to the perception that the Bitcoin ETF market will develop more swiftly.
However, some voices in the industry express caution. Mike McGlone, Senior Macroeconomic Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, raises the possibility that risky assets, including Bitcoin, may face downward pressure after a rally and warns about the volatile nature of this market.
On the other hand, Jamie Coutts, Blockchain Strategist at Pragmatic Blockchain Research, highlights that the fundamentals of the BTC network are at their highest, according to an analysis of network activity. Coutts suggests that, despite the apparent overvaluation compared to the previous peak, Bitcoin could still be considered undervalued based on its robust fundamentals.
Standard Chartered’s prediction that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 is based on the expectation of a substantial increase in demand driven by ETF approval. While some warnings about volatility persist, the optimistic outlook is supported by the strength of the network fundamentals and the potential impact of institutional participation. This optimistic forecast adds to others, such as Matrixport, which suggested that BTC would reach $125,000 by the end of this year.
