Bitcoin weathered the latest geopolitical shock with relative strength, trading near $70,000 after briefly touching $63,000 during the initial wave of selling triggered by the escalation of the conflict in Iran.
Bitcoin’s recovery is highly significant given the global macroeconomic context, although current price action reflects stabilization rather than a reacceleration of risk appetite. The $60,000–$70,000 range recorded strong on-chain accumulation by long-term Bitcoin holders, and derivatives positioning ahead of the March expiry remains constructive.
The macro scenario taking shape does not fit a classic risk-off episode. Equities are under sustained pressure, Treasury yields remain elevated, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed further out. The combination points to a stagflationary mix, with firm inflation and weaker growth, removed from the traditional safe-haven dynamic.
According to analysis published by QCP Capital, Brent briefly reached $120 before retreating following the International Energy Agency’s announcement of a coordinated release of between 300 and 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, potentially the largest in history.
Markets are awaiting Wednesday’s U.S. CPI print, which could definitively reopen or close the window for rate cuts. In that context, Bitcoin is behaving less like a high-beta risk asset and more like a macro instrument sensitive to liquidity conditions.
Source: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-5/
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