TL;DR:
- The fear and greed index fell to 24, its lowest level of the year, reflecting market nervousness.
- Bitwise claims that selling pressure has run its course and that the current scenario favors BTC accumulation ahead of a potential rally in the fourth quarter.
- While small investors are increasing their purchases, miners have transferred 51,000 BTC to exchanges, suggesting potential selling pressure. Still, stability near $110,000 suggests that institutional demand could be supporting the market.
Investor confidence in Bitcoin is experiencing one of its most fragile moments of the year. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 24, its lowest level in twelve months, after recently reaching 71 in “greed” territory. The drop reflects an abrupt shift in market sentiment, marked by uncertainty and a decline in the price of BTC to $108,226, while interest in Google searches for the cryptocurrency also hit a multi-month low.
Bitwise sees fear as an opportunity to accumulate BTC
Despite the decline in sentiment, Bitwise argues that the current fear could be a signal to accumulate, not retreat. Its research team — led by André Dragosch, Max Shannon, and Ayush Tripathi — argues that selling pressure has peaked. According to their analysis, trade tensions between the United States and China caused an increase in risk aversion that affected global markets, including Bitcoin’s recent correction.
Bitwise’s weekly report highlighted that perpetual futures liquidations reached a record drop of nearly $11 billion in open interest, an event that “significantly exhausted selling pressure” and created a contrarian buying window. Dragosch compared this scenario to the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August 2024, noting that current sentiment levels historically precede phases of seasonal strength in the fourth quarter.
On-chain data partially supports this view. Glassnode observed an increase in accumulation by small and medium holders, with balances of 1 to 1,000 BTC, offsetting lower activity from large investors. However, CryptoQuant recorded that miners transferred 51,000 BTC (about $5.7 billion) to exchanges, which could anticipate sales. In addition, more than 265,000 BTC were liquidated in the last month, the largest outflow since January 2025.
Still, the price stability around $110,000 suggests that institutional demand could be absorbing the excess supply. Bitwise believes the market is in transition: from panic to re-accumulation, a pattern that has historically marked the beginning of bull cycles.
