TL;DR
- BIT Research Outlook: BIT Research argues that Bitcoin’s bear market has ended after key technical signals improved and a late-July low held above $62,900, supporting a more bullish long-term market view.
- Market Drivers: Analysts highlighted recovering profitability for holders, stronger ETF inflows, and macroeconomic conditions tied to rising US debt as supportive factors for the current rally.
- Price Projection: Historical cycle analysis points to a possible $185,000 to $215,000 range, though researchers stressed that timing is uncertain and short-term pullbacks remain possible.
BIT Research believes the latest downturn has run its course, arguing in a new report that the Bitcoin bear market is over and that the current cycle could eventually deliver prices between $185,000 and $215,000. The firm said it identified a cycle low in late July after Bitcoin reached a downside target derived from Elliott Wave analysis and successfully held above $62,900. Since then, market conditions have improved considerably, with the asset climbing above $83,000 and heading toward a third consecutive monthly gain.
👀 What if Bitcoin’s rally is just starting… and most people still haven’t noticed?
The BTC bottom may already be behind us. Now comes the fun part: How far can this rally actually run, 200k? https://t.co/J8KPrG9dgW
— BIT Official (@BITofficial_EN) September 30, 2026
Technical Signals Point to Recovery
According to the report, several indicators support a more constructive outlook. BIT Research noted that Bitcoin reached an important turning point when weekly RSI stopped declining during June and July despite fresh price lows. The firm compared that divergence to conditions seen around the 2022 market bottom. The report also highlighted a key technical breakthrough after Bitcoin reclaimed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and pushed back above $70,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $83,800, comfortably above its March 2024 peak of $73,084. Another factor cited by analysts is cost basis data. With the True Market Mean estimated at $76,897, both typical holders and average spot ETF buyers have returned to profit. In BIT Research’s view, that reduces a potential source of selling pressure and strengthens the market structure for Bitcoin.
Macro Trends and ETF Demand Add Support
BIT Research also pointed to broader economic conditions. US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and concerns over government finances have contributed to higher Treasury yields. The firm argued that such conditions can encourage capital flows toward assets such as gold and BTC. Its debt-based valuation model produces a reference value near $105,000.
Although analysts acknowledged that a stronger US dollar remains a challenge, they do not expect it to derail the rally. The report further noted that Bitcoin ETF inflows have strengthened. September net inflows reached $2.8 billion, lifting cumulative inflows to $57.6 billion and total net assets to roughly $108 billion.
Why BIT Research Sees $215K as a Possibility
Looking at historical cycles, BIT Research found that Bitcoin has previously traded at least 85% above the average holder’s cost basis. That benchmark currently sits near $142,000. Analysts stressed that this level should be viewed as a reference point rather than a final target. During the previous cycle, Bitcoin advanced well beyond the 85% threshold before reaching its peak.
Applying a reduced cycle multiple to today’s $142,000 base produces a projected range of $185,000 to $215,000. Even so, the firm cautioned that timing remains uncertain and emphasized that Bitcoin appears stretched after a rapid advance, leaving room for consolidation or a larger pullback before any further move higher.
