TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s drop from $126,080 signals rising U.S. credit stress that equity markets have not yet priced in.
- He estimates potential bank losses of $557 billion if AI displaces 20% of knowledge workers.
- While some analysts question the speed of disruption, they acknowledge tightening dollar liquidity and rising delinquencies as growing macro risks.
Bitcoin has diverged sharply from the Nasdaq in recent months, and Arthur Hayes says the gap carries a warning. The co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX contends that Bitcoin’s retreat from its October 2025 high of $126,080 reflects early credit deterioration in the United States, even as the Nasdaq 100 remains relatively stable.
The leading cryptocurrency trades near $67,000, down 27% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data. Hayes argues that this move reflects tightening liquidity and structural risks tied to rapid AI adoption, rather than isolated crypto weakness.
Bitcoin Divergence From Nasdaq Signals Credit Strain
Hayes maintains that Bitcoin often reacts first to shifts in dollar liquidity because it trades 24 hours a day and adjusts quickly to macroeconomic changes. In his view, equity markets have not fully incorporated the downstream effects of AI-driven job displacement among white-collar workers.
He estimates that if 20% of the country’s 72.1 million knowledge workers lose their jobs, banks could face $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses, totaling $557 billion in potential balance sheet stress for U.S. commercial banks.
Some asset managers remain cautious about the timeline. They argue that labor market transitions linked to AI typically unfold over quarters or years, not weeks. They also point to Federal Reserve policy, including elevated interest rates and quantitative tightening, as partial explanations for weaker crypto performance without confirming an imminent systemic shock.
AI Disruption And Dollar Liquidity Pressures
Hayes frames AI as a catalyst that could compress employment in software, finance, and professional services. Tools capable of performing complex analytical and coding tasks in minutes may reduce demand for large teams and expensive SaaS subscriptions, potentially amplifying credit vulnerabilities.
Gold has recently shown relative strength during Bitcoin’s pullback, a pattern Hayes interprets as positioning for deflationary credit stress. If broader financial strain emerges, he expects the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity to stabilize the banking system.
For long-term crypto investors, that scenario reinforces Bitcoin’s role as a fixed-supply asset in periods of monetary expansion.
