Mayer Multiple

Named after investor Trace Mayer, the ratio is simple: a reading of 1 means bitcoin trades exactly at its 200-day average, 2 means it is twice that level, and 0.7 means it is 30% below. Because the 200-day average is a widely followed trend line in traditional markets, the multiple offers a quick sense of whether bitcoin is extended or depressed.

Mayer's original analysis suggested that historically, buying when the multiple was below about 2.4 had produced better long-term results than buying above it, and readings above that level coincided with bubble phases. Readings below 1 have tended to appear in bear markets and periods of accumulation. Dashboards show it alongside other cycle indicators.

Thresholds based on bitcoin's early, very volatile years may not hold as the market matures; recent cycle peaks have come at much lower multiples than earlier ones. The metric uses only price, so it says nothing about why the market moved. It is best used as context, not as a mechanical buy or sell rule.