TL;DR:Â
- Realized losses by long-term investors represent 43% of the total value registered on the network.Â
- The daily trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs remains in a range between 650 and 950 million dollars.Â
- The put/call ratio in the options market dropped to 0.56, recording its lowest level so far in the year 2026.Â
It has been consistent over the last 5 months that the Bitcoin price has been below its actual market average and the cost basis of short-term investors, giving way to an extended period of institutional undervaluation.
On-chain dynamics and geopolitical impactÂ
The most recent report from Glassnode reveals that executed losses by long-term holders reached a peak of $280 million dollars daily, a figure not seen since late 2022. The analyzed data suggests that traders who bought assets near the cycle peak are abandoning their positions due to prolonged downward pressure.
On the other hand, institutional flow shows signs of slowing down in its outflow trend. Metrics from SoSoValue indicated that, at the close of the July 8 session, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling 84.86 million dollars. In contrast, Ether-based financial vehicles recorded net inflows of $70.48 million dollars during the same day.
The macroeconomic environment has also conditioned the behavior of risk assets. The breakdown of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran triggered a 7.9% increase in WTI crude oil following attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Glassnode’s observations, this geopolitical shock caused the cryptocurrency to reduce its weekly advance from 9.4% to approximately 5%, aligning with the widespread retreat of the traditional stock indices S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx.
Key technical levels in developmentÂ
The internal structure of financial derivatives shows positioning that differs from spot market behavior. The options market reflects that the 25-day delta skew rose to 24% at the end of June, showing a high demand for protection against potential drops.
The firm Capital.com pointed out that the Bitcoin price in the lower $60,000 dollar zone acts as a fundamental technical support to consolidate a stable floor structure.
According to that analysis, a sustained move above the mid-range of $65,000 dollars stands as the first significant resistance before attempting to target previous highs near the $70,000 dollar mark again. The global financial ecosystem will focus its attention on the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for this coming July 14.
