House Administration Chairman Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18, 2026. The bill would prohibit Members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from wagering on public policy issues or political outcomes, making prediction-market activity a congressional ethics issue.
The proposal affects lawmakers and immediate family members who might use prediction markets tied to government action, specific policy decisions or election results. Violators would face a fee of $2,000 or 10% of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater, plus net gains, making the penalty structure financial rather than merely reputational.
The next point to watch is whether the bill advances beyond introduction. The committee said current law does not explicitly bar lawmakers from these wagers, so the measure now tests whether Congress will close that ethics gap.
Source: United States Committee on House Administration.
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