TL;DR:
- Toncoin reached a high of $2.90 on Thursday, May 7, triggering the liquidation of nearly $29 million in short positions in just 48 hours.
- Telegram has formally replaced the TON Foundation as the network’s largest validator, driving recent volatility.
- The price has experienced a 15.6% correction from its peak, currently situated in a technical reassessment phase.
The price of Toncoin is in a pullback phase after being rejected at the $2.90 resistance during the May 7 session. The asset, which showed accelerated momentum last week, is showing signs of exhaustion in relative strength indicators.
Data from CoinGlass reveal that the speed of the previous upward movement eliminated short positions worth approximately $29 million. All of this occurred in just two days, coinciding with the token’s approach to the $3 mark, the highest level recorded in the current cycle.
Despite the 15.6% correction observed from the peak reached, the oscillation structure remains technically bullish on higher timeframes. Market demand allowed for the absorption of a token unlock valued at $103 million without an immediate price collapse, reflecting an active buyer base.
Retracement Levels and TON Technical Structure
Technical analysis based on Fibonacci extension levels indicates that the 161.8% level, located at $2.46, was momentarily surpassed before the current reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) began to correct from multi-month highs, suggesting a decrease in buying pressure after an overbought period.
Market data indicates that retracement levels were drawn to identify potential support points in the face of the current decline. It is estimated that a pullback toward $2.01, representing the 50% Fibonacci level, presents itself as a likely scenario if selling pressure persists in the coming days.
The drop could potentially extend to the area between $1.5 and $1.8. This zone, technically known as the “golden pocket” between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels, is closely watched by traders to identify possible long-term re-entry points.
In recent sessions, pockets of short position liquidations have accumulated above $2.50. This configuration suggests that the market anticipates a deeper pullback, although the possibility of a “short squeeze” that temporarily drives the price toward $3 before the final correction consolidates is not ruled out.
TON’s performance remains closely linked to general cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin trends. Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains under institutional pressure, which could influence the recovery capacity of altcoins during the remainder of 2026 if global liquidity decreases.
The network has recently faced significant structural changes with the entry of new institutional players. Telegram’s transition as the network’s main validator altered the perception of governance within the ecosystem, a factor that technical documentation links directly to the increase in transaction volume recorded in May.
Investors remain cautious about the possibility of the global macroeconomic trend affecting the sector’s capitalization. If the market maintains a generalized bearish stance, buying at the mentioned support levels could carry additional risks if stop-loss zones are not respected.
The next milestone for the TON network will be price stabilization around the $2.00 psychological support while new volumes of token
