Bitcoin price confirms a 41% drop from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October of last year. However, major investment banks and asset managers publish reports with price targets ranging from $100,000 to $200,000 for the year’s end. The contradiction puzzles at first glance.
Why does Wall Street bet on upside when crypto market sentiment registers extreme fear? The answer does not reside in short-term charts or passing narratives. It rests on two pillars that completely transform the asset’s structure: an ultra-limited supply approaching its end and an institutional adoption that no longer depends on speculative cycles.
On April 19, 2024, the Bitcoin network executed its fourth halving. The reward per validated block dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. Immediately, the daily issuance of new bitcoins fell from around 900 to 450. Many analysts downplayed the impact because, in the current cycle, the cut removed barely 1.8% of the annual supply.
However, the real effect of the halving accumulates over time. Today, miners introduce barely 450 fresh bitcoins to the market every 24 hours. To put that figure in context, the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States accumulated, just during peak buying periods, daily volumes exceeding the daily miner supply. Institutional demand absorbs the new supply and presses the price upward.
The most compelling data point is not the daily flow. In March 2026, the network surpassed 20 million bitcoins in circulation. The number indicates that miners have already extracted 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Approximately 1.32 million bitcoins remain to be mined over the next 114 years. Bitcoin’s scarcity ceased to be a theoretical argument.
It now represents a quantifiable and definitive reality. I have followed financial markets for years and have never found an asset with such a predictably declining supply curve combined with a hard, unalterable cap. Neither gold, nor oil, nor real estate offers a production ceiling engraved in code. Consequently, any increase in demand triggers an immediate and often disproportionate price adjustment.
Demand not only grows; it changed its nature. Since January 2024, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States channel institutional capital at record speed. In 2025, the ETFs and direct purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) accounted for nearly $44 billion in net buying pressure. BlackRock’s ETF, IBIT, already custodies more than 800,000 bitcoins. Pension managers, insurers, and family offices entered the market with a long-term mindset. They accumulate and hold.
The behavior alters the supply because it removes coins from the market permanently. The BNY Wealth survey of 2026 shows that 74% of family offices explore or actively invest in digital assets, up from 53% in 2024. Additionally, 68% of institutional investors already hold or plan to acquire a bitcoin exchange-traded product.
At the same time, recent signals confirm that purchases do not stop. The Coinbase Premium Index returned to positive territory in mid-April 2026. The signal indicates that large U.S. investors pay a premium to acquire bitcoin. The ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows during the same period.
The regulatory environment also removed the uncertainty that held back large capital. In the United States, the CLARITY Act, approved in the House of Representatives in 2025 and on the verge of a Senate vote, creates a federal framework for digital assets. Additionally, President Trump established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, integrating the cryptocurrency into the country’s economic policy.
In Europe, the MiCA regulation provides institutional standards that boosted adoption among European family offices. In Asia, Singapore and Hong Kong offer clear rules that raised the average allocation to 5% in digital assets. Legal clarity reduces perceived risk and turns bitcoin into a legitimate piece of diversified portfolios. I no longer speak of a marginal asset for retail investors; I speak of a store of value competing with gold on corporate and state balance sheets.
Monetary policy expectations also play in favor. Several analysts base their projections on the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates throughout 2026, bringing them to the 3% range toward year-end. Futures markets have discounted that move for weeks. Historically, periods of abundant liquidity coincided with rises in bitcoin’s price.
In particular, bitcoin benefits because it acts as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation and the uncontrolled growth of public debt. With a finite supply, no central bank can dilute its value. The combination of monetary stimulus and programmed scarcity results in a disequilibrium favorable to price.
I must be honest. Nothing guarantees that bitcoin will reach $200,000 in nine months. Signals exist that invite caution. In the fourth quarter of 2025, long-term holders moved a record amount of bitcoins to exchanges. The coin days destroyed metric spiked, suggesting a massive distribution of strong hands.
Some on-chain indicators, like the MVRV Z-Score and negative funding rates, point to the market possibly being in the early stages of a bear cycle, with a potential floor in the $55,000 zone. Additionally, Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair expires in May 2026. The change of leadership at the central bank introduces an uncertainty variable that markets do not always digest well.
Now, bitcoin’s history demonstrates that sharp corrections have always coexisted with a long-term upward trend. Those who bought at the bottoms of 2018, 2020, or 2022 and held the position obtained extraordinary returns. The difference from previous cycles lies in the nature of demand. Before, the price depended on the speculative appetite of retail investors. Today, institutional purchases create a floor that did not exist before.
ETFs do not liquidate their positions in panic; companies like Strategy do not sell to cover margins; family offices seek to preserve capital over the long term. Therefore, my opinion aligns with the estimates of large banks, albeit with a dose of realism. I consider the $100,000 to $150,000 range reachable in the last quarter of 2026, provided the rate cuts materialize and the CLARITY Act is enacted without setbacks.
Bitcoin is no longer an experiment. It became a global reserve asset with a mathematically declining supply and a buyer base that does not get swayed by short-term emotions. The current paradox—depressed price and soaring bullish targets—reflects a perception gap that patient investors know how to exploit.
The market remains anchored in old cyclical schemes while, beneath the surface, institutional capital flows and extreme scarcity write a different story. I do not need to shout slogans or promise instant wealth. Observing the numbers suffices: fewer than 1.4 million bitcoins left to mine, more than 800,000 held by a single ETF, and a tide of institutional capital barely beginning. The fundamentals are forceful. Anyone who understands the scale of the supply-demand imbalance will find few reasons not to be bullish in 2026.
