TL;DR:
- Opening probabilities: Kalshi and Polymarket place the probability of maritime traffic normalization before June below 45%.
- Current traffic: Flow has dropped drastically from 100 ships per day to just eight, following the seizure of vessels by Iranian forces.
- Impact on commodities: Brent crude has reclaimed the $100 per barrel level due to the extension of the U.S. naval blockade.
Investors on prediction platforms are adjusting their bets in light of the operational shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz. Although there is an extension of the truce, the market does not foresee an immediate solution.
Technical data from LSEG confirms the severity of the situation: transit volume has collapsed to historical lows. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz records only three tankers passing per day, compared to pre-war normalcy.
This scenario stimulated volatility in global energy markets. The capitalization of crude oil futures contracts reflects a growing risk premium due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Kalshi forecasts that there is only a 42% probability that operational activity will return to normal by June 1st. Polymarket, for its part, remains optimistic but cautious regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Both platforms use the IMF PortWatch seven-day moving average to define normal flow. This metric is fundamental for traders seeking a hedge against supply chain disruptions.
UBS Analysis and Escalation in Oil Prices
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, strategist at UBS, warns that the reopening of the channel remains “elusive.” Iran’s stance links normalization to the total lifting of the naval blockade imposed by the United States.
This paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz creates the risk of a prolonged period of high energy prices. This factor could weigh down global economic growth if the crude supply is not restored soon.
Political rhetoric intensified tension in the area. Threats of direct military actions and the seizure of cargo ships such as the MSC Francesca validated the pessimism of prediction markets.
While Washington asserts it has control of the entrance to the gulf, Tehran demonstrates its interruption capability. This dichotomy keeps financial operators in a state of maximum and constant alert.
Market sentiment suggests that the Strait of Hormuz will not regain full operability in the short term, consolidating a scenario of crude oil above triple digits.
