TL;DR:
- Polymarket’s prediction markets show only a 4% probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April 7.
- According to Axios, the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a 45-day truce that could lead to a permanent agreement.
- Only 46% of Polymarket traders believe a deal will be reached before May 31, reflecting widespread skepticism across the market.
The conflict between the United States, Iran, and Israel continues to capture the attention of financial markets around the world. A report published by Axios revealed that all three parties, along with unidentified regional mediators, are negotiating a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lay the groundwork for a definitive end to the conflict. However, Polymarket, the prediction markets platform, shows that traders are far from believing this is feasible in the short term.
The contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is one of the most active on the platform, with a volume close to $100 million. The probability of a deal being reached before April 7 stands at just 4%, though that marks an increase from the 1% recorded 24 hours earlier. For April 15, the odds climb to 17%, up from 11% the previous day.
Polymarket Traders Are Not Getting Carried Away by Optimism
The figures for dates further out do not reflect outright optimism either. Only 45% of traders estimate a deal will be reached before May 31, while that percentage rises slightly to 56% for June 30. In other words, even in longer-range projections, half of traders do not believe a lasting truce will be achieved.
The skepticism on Polymarket, and among traders broadly, has direct repercussions for risk assets and markets in general. Oil prices have surged in recent weeks, partly because a significant share of international crude trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently under Iranian control. The rise in energy prices fuels inflationary fears worldwide and puts pressure on indexes such as the S&P 500, which accumulated several losses before partially recovering following signals of de-escalation in the conflict.
The Impact on Bitcoin
Bitcoin cannot escape this dynamic either. BTC began climbing during the latest session, once again surpassing $69,000 and reaching a multi-day high. Should a truce materialize, analysts anticipate that risk assets could benefit enormously, leaving BTC positioned as one of the primary beneficiaries of an eventual peace-oriented process in the region.
