TL;DR:
- B3, one of Brazil’s most important exchanges, will launch on April 27 six contracts linked to the price of bitcoin, the dollar, and the Ibovespa index.
- The instruments will operate as prediction markets and will be regulated by the CVM, available only to investors with more than 10 million reais.
- B3 is also developing its own tokenization platform and a stablecoin, both expected to be ready before year-end.
One of Brazil‘s most important exchanges, B3, will launch on April 27 six event contracts that allow investors to bet on future outcomes, including the price of bitcoin, the movement of the dollar, and the performance of the Ibovespa index.
The instruments, called Event Contracts, operate under a scheme similar to that of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with prices reaching up to 100 reais (approximately $19) and reflecting the market’s estimated probability that a given outcome will materialize.
The contracts are regulated by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), Brazil’s securities regulator, and are designed exclusively for professional investors with assets exceeding 10 million reais (approximately $1.9 million) or holding CVM certification. Settlement is in cash, with no delivery of the underlying assets, and both payouts and risks are clearly defined from the outset of all transactions.
B3 Marks a Regulatory Milestone in Brazil’s Market
Luiz Masagão, Executive Vice President of Products and Clients at B3, noted that the launch aims to modernize the derivatives market in Brazil. The exchange already offers contracts linked to central bank decisions from various countries and has closely monitored the growth of prediction platforms abroad.
B3 will become the first institution to operate with full federal regulation and approval in Brazil, though competitors are already in sight. Local platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada operate in a regulatory gray area, while Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, the country’s largest brokerage, to offer contracts linked to Brazilian economic outcomes.
The international context has been key to advancing in this direction. The notional volume of prediction markets is approaching $160 billion, according to data from Dune, and unique users have already surpassed 3 million. Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the market globally. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, deepened its full commitment to Polymarket at nearly $2 billion.
Regulatory clarity, however, remains a subject of broad debate. In Brazil, experts warn that it has yet to be determined whether oversight of these markets falls under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.
